Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - ES Bull Flag

2024년 12월 17일

I'm beginning to get more bearish for the short term but for now ES continues to hold support around 6,113, which was a previous ATH from the post election rally. It's bullish until it breaks. My best guess is that it will break and will potentially provide a good short opportunity for a move down to demand and a previous swing low near 5,950. Next downside target from there would be 5,800.

If it holds I'd expect a move back up to the top end of the range and would be looking for longs on a break and retest or any good dips. This is an interesting spot and seems like a good spot to long, but it could just as easily be a quick flush. It's probably best to wait and see what happens after FOMC before putting on too much risk. There will be a chance to get on board after it chooses a direction. IV is rising, best to wait for it to come down.

2024년 12월 18일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

Demand at 5950 hit and it didn't hold either at least for now, I'd still consider it a valid support if we rally back above tomorrow. For now, expecting more downside especially if it can't quickly reclaim the area. Good spot to scale out of puts and hold some runners. Ideally we'd get another good short entry if it continues falling and then comes back to 5950 for a retest.