SPY The Final Countdown

Since the April lows, equity markets have exhibited strong performance, with many stocks appreciating by nearly 100%—some even exceeding that threshold. Given the velocity of this rally, a corrective pullback may be imminent before the broader uptrend resumes.

The current reading on the Fear & Greed Index places market sentiment firmly within the "extreme greed" territory—historically a zone where investors often begin to lock in profits or initiate contrarian positions against the prevailing trend.

From a technical standpoint, I’ve conducted an Elliott Wave impulse analysis to evaluate the recent price structure. This method, which utilizes Fibonacci-based mathematical relationships, provides insight into the expansion and contraction phases of market cycles.

Using the trend-based Fibonacci extension tool, one can estimate potential termination zones for impulse waves. In the current scenario, the fifth wave appears to be approaching completion. By analyzing the proportional relationships between waves 1, 3, and 4, a key confluence level emerges at the 61.8% extension—commonly referred to as the “golden pocket”—just above the 6400 level on the futures chart.

I plan to set alerts at this price level to secure profits, hedge existing positions, and potentially initiate a short trade—should market structure confirm a reversal through a valid breakdown trigger.

액티브 트레이드

Taking the short on the bounce today into the ath range rejection

노트

Looking at the ES SP500 Futures, I am seeing a potential ABC structure, which is referred to be a corrective structure. otherwise can be referred to as a flag. Should price break above the current high, we would need to show decisive strength into the ath for higher price. For the current moment, I am worried if the market opens with a sharp move the the downside throughout the day.

노트

The only interesting thing here for me is that although ES hit the target fib extension , the nq slightly front ran the level. But, it might be able to be accounted for as its within the parameters. I like how the nq holds the upper bounds of the previous high, which is much stronger than the ES where buyers could not quite hold the upper range on the drop.