SPX /ES Volatility 02 June 2022

SPX /ES Volatility 02 June 2022
The current percentile of SPX /ES is around 71.83%.
The current implied volatility is around 26.05 -> which translates into a daily movement of 1.64%
At the same time, this translates in an aproximate +-67$ movement

For this we can assume close to 85% probability of efficiency based on the last years data.

Based on this our channel for today is going to be, assuming the opening price is 4100
TOP 4100 + 65 ~= 4165
BOT 4100 - 65 ~= 4035
This strategy is perfectly suited for an iron condor

At the same for those that are looking for entry points in case they want to go long call/put or a reverse iron condor,
instead of normal iron condor we can make use of next data:
Based on the last years, we can expect that the asset is going to move more than 0.41% which translates into a +- 20$ movements.
And this comes with a 75-80% probability based on the last years.

TOP 4100 + 20 ~= 4120=> as an entry point for long where we can use the opening price as a stop loss
BOT 4100 - 20 ~= 4080 => as an entry point for short where we can use the opening price as a stop loss