Equities to dip soon? BTC and /ES still very correlated.

2020년 4월 10일

Last Monday, /ES blew past 2550, the "trendline-in-the-sand", making an imminent retest of 2200 fairly unlikely.

However, a trend channel is being developed with multiple signs of rejection at the top of the channel, most recently from 2800 on Thursday.

Also note that the correlation of Bitcoin and equities has been extremely high since the start of this crisis. This supports the theory that Bitcoin is treated like a risk asset by the markets. For now, if the correlation holds, it could mean that equities will reach the lower part of our channel fairly soon. A rough price target is given as 2585, or a little over 7% decline from current prices.

Disclaimer: I am not long or short this market as I do not generally trade on such short time frames. I am in a neutral position for now and am planning to get long when my target is reached.