Another ugly quarter so far with US Equities officially going into a bear market, an abundance of bearish sentiment, and talks of recession.
Price is king and with the nice downward channel it looks like we may get a relief rally this week (possibly into next as well) given :
- Reversion to the mean with price now well beneath the 30 day moving average
- RSI near oversold on the daily
- Bottom MACD curl
- Quarter end window dressing
- Opex behind us
Until the regime changes it's a STFR (short the .. rip) trading plan . I'm trading around a core Bear Risk Reversal position with DEC opex in solid names and some China (mostly green with some slightly underwater after last week). Hedged with JUL QQQ put debit spread in case we open this week with a nasty leg down although R/R favors near term upside IMO.
Resistance levels charted but my eyes will focused on how price reacts at the 3925 zone (obviously assuming we get there) as I will take some long profit and start legging into shorts here.
Stay Liquid Friends
Cheers
Price is king and with the nice downward channel it looks like we may get a relief rally this week (possibly into next as well) given :
- Reversion to the mean with price now well beneath the 30 day moving average
- RSI near oversold on the daily
- Bottom MACD curl
- Quarter end window dressing
- Opex behind us
Until the regime changes it's a STFR (short the .. rip) trading plan . I'm trading around a core Bear Risk Reversal position with DEC opex in solid names and some China (mostly green with some slightly underwater after last week). Hedged with JUL QQQ put debit spread in case we open this week with a nasty leg down although R/R favors near term upside IMO.
Resistance levels charted but my eyes will focused on how price reacts at the 3925 zone (obviously assuming we get there) as I will take some long profit and start legging into shorts here.
Stay Liquid Friends
Cheers