ES/SPY Weekly Levels (Dec5-9)

업데이트됨

The S&P closed the week up 1.07% after trading in a range of 167 points. It was a volatile week filled with economic data. An explosive move on Wednesday propelled the S&P 119 points higher after weaker than expected inflation data and a speech by Powell. The S&P then gapped back down on Friday morning after NFP numbers, but managed to recover the entire down move by the end of the day to close out the week at 4075, the high of the recent range. Price closed above the 200 SMA for the first time since March just and below the longer term downward trend line. Posting the weekly chart this time to show the higher time frame Fib retracements. Next resistance above is the higher time frame 618 Fib RT. Key support below is the higher time frame 382 Fib RT.

• Coming off positive +1.07 % week
• Price above longer term 382 Fib RT and the key emas
• S&P closed above the 200 SMA for the 1st time since March
• Price closed just below long term downward trendline resistance
• Lighter week for econ data
• CPI and FOMC meeting scheduled the following week
• Massive move potential in either direction given key price location
• Historically bullish period for stocks
• Market torn between easing inflation & fears of a recession
• DXY & bond yield have dropped substantially.
• VIX is now below 20 = max complacency
• Massive yield inversion still a concern.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday US ISM Services PMI & US Factory Orders
Tuesday US International Trade
Wednesday BoC Rate Decision & US EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Jobless Claims
Friday US PPI & University of Mich. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday BHP, MDB, TOL
Wednesday CPB, GME, THO
Thursday AVGO, COST, DOCU, LULU, ORCL
Friday Nothing Notable

BULLISH NOTES

Close above 200 SMA
Massive short covering possible above trend line
Seasonally strong period for stocks
Declining bond yields
Less hawkish tone from Fed heads
Potential rally into CPI & FOMC following week
Many stocks developing bullish charts.

BEARISH NOTES

SPX at trend line resistance
Stoch (5,1) very overbought at 79.56
Price already 16% off lows
Current rally did not start with a VIX spike
VIX below 20 = market overly complacent
Value/staple names leading current rally
Yield inversions causing recession fears

코멘트

Real push/pull price action to start the week. 200sma remains my line in the sand, but as you can see we have a real battle going on between bulls & bears. Market tries to sell off but has been bought up quickly. Need to wait for confirmation in one direction.

코멘트

Fast move down this morning. Testing the upward trend line. Important that this zone been the trend line and the 21 ema holds. If it break below the 21 there be a much deeper pull back.

코멘트

The key 382 Fib retracement (mentioned in original post) is the last line of defense for the bulls in this zone. Below that a trip back to 3780 is possible.

코멘트

So far not a good look for the bulls. ES broke thought the 382 Fib and has already retested it from the down side. A break of the overnight low could lead to a big drop. Cash session will need to confirm.

코멘트

Case of what you think should happen didn't. Looked like an easy break below the 382 Fib but it has held. This is how shorts get trapped a short covering ensues. Very choppy PA yesterday. Lets see if we get some direction today.