The broader equity market has staged a significant rebound from the panic-induced tariff lows seen in April, reclaiming the previously established value area with notable strength. Generally, when price reclaims a value range, it can be common for price to oscillate within the value area high, and low, to build strength for the next move.
From a structural standpoint, I interpret this advance as a five-wave impulsive sequence, with the current rally toward the 6100 level representing the fifth subwave within a larger third wave of the broader Elliott Wave framework. According to this interpretation, we may be approaching a final "blow-off" move to the upside—commonly labeled as Wave 5 of 5—which is often characterized by its velocity, magnitude, and the psychological impact it has on retail participants, frequently triggering a surge of FOMO-driven buying.
However, I urge caution: this concluding leg may offer a strategic opportunity to reduce equity exposure, particularly as August has historically exhibited bearish seasonality. A swift corrective decline could follow the completion of this wave, potentially sparking short-term panic. While unsettling, such a correction would likely represent a healthy rebalancing within the broader uptrend and could provide an advantageous entry point ahead of a year-end rally.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that many hedge funds and CTAs have remained underexposed throughout this powerful ascent. Should valuations reset to more attractive levels, sidelined liquidity—particularly capital currently parked in money markets—may be incentivized to re-enter the market with a longer-term outlook.
The key indicator which I will be following is the VIX risk sentiment in the market. Once we reach elevated levels above approx 30/40 , this would be a good time for me to analyze potentially dollar cost averaging back into the market.
Good luck!
From a structural standpoint, I interpret this advance as a five-wave impulsive sequence, with the current rally toward the 6100 level representing the fifth subwave within a larger third wave of the broader Elliott Wave framework. According to this interpretation, we may be approaching a final "blow-off" move to the upside—commonly labeled as Wave 5 of 5—which is often characterized by its velocity, magnitude, and the psychological impact it has on retail participants, frequently triggering a surge of FOMO-driven buying.
However, I urge caution: this concluding leg may offer a strategic opportunity to reduce equity exposure, particularly as August has historically exhibited bearish seasonality. A swift corrective decline could follow the completion of this wave, potentially sparking short-term panic. While unsettling, such a correction would likely represent a healthy rebalancing within the broader uptrend and could provide an advantageous entry point ahead of a year-end rally.
Furthermore, it's worth noting that many hedge funds and CTAs have remained underexposed throughout this powerful ascent. Should valuations reset to more attractive levels, sidelined liquidity—particularly capital currently parked in money markets—may be incentivized to re-enter the market with a longer-term outlook.
The key indicator which I will be following is the VIX risk sentiment in the market. Once we reach elevated levels above approx 30/40 , this would be a good time for me to analyze potentially dollar cost averaging back into the market.
Good luck!
노트
So far, getting the breakdown as the middle east tensions grow on potential US involvement 노트
I will be looking for long trades if we get a consolidation and market structure change, like this for the reversal 노트
To be fair, we may not even get the drop to 5800 as the market seems quite strong
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