ES/SPY Weekend Levels (Aug15-19)

업데이트됨

The S&P has just come a very strong week. It outperformed the Nasdaq and closed the week 3.2% higher. The S&P is above its lower time frame 618 Fib and has broken the May 31st high, but is now coming into significant resistance at the downward trendline and the 200 SMA. After 4 weeks of gains some profit taking is a possibility this week. Key resistance comes in at 4320. Key support remains the 4200 area. Below are some points I am considering going into this trading week.

• My bias going into this week remains Neutral.
• S&P completed another strong week. It had a 160-point range and finished up 3.24%.
• Closed just below the downward trendline and is above the 9/21/55 emas
• Price has completed more than a 50% Fib retracement of the bear market drop.
• Price also sits above the 618 Fib retracement of the Mar 31st – June 17th the drop.
• 200 SMA is within striking distance.
• Price at key decision point coming into confluence of the downward trendline, 200 SMA & HTF 618 Fib RT.
• FOMC Meeting minutes out on Wednesday
• Still see 4200 as key support below & 4300 as key resistance above.
• Lighter week for earnings but major retailer are reporting like WMT, LOW, HD & TG. Should give the market a better read on the state of the consumer.

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday NY Fed Manufacturing & Fed’s Waller Speaks
Tuesday Canadian CPI, US Housing Starts & US Industrial Production
Wednesday US Retail Sales, US EIA Crude Inventories & FOMC Minutes
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims & Canadian PPI
Friday Canadian Retail Sales, Fed’s Barkin Speaks & Baker Hughs Rig count

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday GLBE, ZIP
Tuesday HD, HUYA, SE, WMT, A
Wednesday DNUT, LOW, TGT, TJX, BBWI, CSCO
Thursday BJ, KSS, EL, NIO, WB, AMAT
Friday DE, VIPS, FL

BULLISH NOTES

Above Lower Time Frame 618 Fib RT (4217)
Price above 9/21/55 ema
200 SMA within striking distance
Low VIX
Potential continuation of short covering rally
Dropping yields
Inflationary pressure continues to drop

BEARISH NOTES

Overbought conditions with RSI over 70
After 4 green weeks a correction is overdue
Many traders expect the market to roll over at this level
Below the HTF 618 Fib still technically in a bear rally
Potential negative reaction to mega retail earnings
Potential shock events (eg. Taiwan or social unrest)
Sudden increase in yields would be negative.
Possible profit taking week

노트

Price managed to tap the 4300 level yesterday. It has stalled just below the 200 sma. To be determined if the market feels that it is high enough before it corrects. I am expecting a pull back in this zone. Hard to read at this point whether the pull back will be controlled or a resumption of the down trend as many expect. FOMC minutes tomorrow may play a part. Also it is option expiry week so expect volatility around key whole numbers such as 4300.

노트

S&P now at key resistance point. May see push through and then rejection.

노트

Rejected exactly at the line. Very obvious area to short and/or take profits. FOMC meeting today will be key. This is a significant level. If the level is to be broken it will likely take a few runs. The 618 Fib below lines up with the 9 ema so that is a downside target if selling continues.

노트

The entire market is watching the 200 sma and the downward trendline. Many expect a continuation of the down trend now. If price holds and moves higher, however, the S&P enters and Bull Zone and my bias goes from Neutral to Bullish. If price fail to break through look for support at the 9 ema and the 21 ema below. A deep pull back could take us to the 4000 zone.