Morning Update: Waking up to Downside

This morning the ES futures are down -43.50 to 4040.75 or just over 1%. I would venture a guess this is repositioning on the heels on Fridays OPEX. This micro structure is underdetermined to be impulsive or corrective as of my morning update.

Below shows the difference.

I am still unclear as to what this larger pattern will ultimately conclude as. First thing is I am watching the micro pattern to see if we finish as an impulsive 5-wave pattern...which could still be an a-wave. As I stated over the weekend, and prior to that, this retrace will provide the answers we need. This pattern is officially busted below 3901.75. So we have a lot of room the chop around before we get answers. I would prefer price stay below 4072 (wave 1 low on micro chart) until it hits the 4007.50 level. That would provide downside overlap and continue to cloud the direction of price.

I'll update during the day if anything crazy happens which I do not anticipate.

PS: I am still short -25 4300 Feb EOM calls which are now profitable.

Best to all,

Chris