Week Long Analysis of 2/21 Week Ahead

2023년 2월 21일

So full disclosure, I cashed out my short from 4162 this morning at 4152. That was a $5,500 profit. I would have likely held the short for continued movement towards my goal of 3913 +\- 20, but I am heading to Vermont this week to ski, because Winter forgot to show up in most of the East Coast this year and I want to get some time on the slopes with my rentals I paid for (Only been able to go 4 times this year, including the trip to New York).

Anyways, overall I am still Bearish, and would look to see if we get a 12hr downtrend mark here that would close around 13:00 EST today. It hasn't shown up yet, but I wasn't watching when it dipped to the low of 4047, so maybe it flagged around there. I could see a minor bounce around that timeframe if it hits to give us some 30m/1hr uptrend movement before it heads further south. I find the inability of this market to have a meltdown interesting this year, and has increased the need for me to look at things in a more day trading sentiment than swing trading.

Overall the trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 4154 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low
1Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low
2Hr - 4113 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Lower Low
3Hr - 4104 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low
4Hr - 4095 Downtrend (2/16/2023) Higher Low
6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low
12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High
Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

It should be noted we are going from a 4hr downtrend to a 12hr downtrend in this movement, because the 6hr downtrend struck back on February 10th. I do have some concern that before a final move down to 3913, we could see a 2hr/3hr/4hr uptrend because all of the downtrends we hit there were higher lows.

What to Watch;
Earnings - We have some big earnings for this week. If I'm not mistaken though, it is just this week and next week for the last of Earnings season. The S&P is sitting at around 22x Forward Earnings, an increase over this year so far from 18x Forward Earnings. That seems way too high to me for this current economic climate, as the major companies of the S&P missed their Earnings report by about 8% overall.

Economic Data;
Tuesday (Today) - We have some manufacturing data and housing market stuff. Important but not groundbreaking in my opinion.
Wednesday - Fed Meeting Minutes. Look for reinforced hawkish (though less hawkish) rhetoric. I think the idea that the Fed is going to cut rates this year is finally going away and the market will need to accept that.
Thursday - GDP and Jobs data. Jobs data has been important for a while, but look to GDP to show some guidance if we are hitting a soft landing, a hard landing, or (the new) no landing. Of those three, the soft landing is the best outcome according to most Economists.
Friday - PCE data, which is currently on track to show a decline year over year but an increase month over month. The last CPI was a flat move sideways with no decline in inflation, and the PPI showed an increase in cost production for inflation, so it would make sense that the PCE could show a momentary return of inflation increasing, which will cause a big panic that the next rate hike will be a 50bps increase.

That about sums it up, I look forward to stepping away from the market for the week. My sentiment into today is;
Shorter Term - Bearish/Neutral
Short Term - Neutral (from 4050)
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Neutral

Safe trading, and REMEMBER YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT PLAN. I can't stress that enough, that what makes me successful at trading is my ability to follow my risk management plan (at least 99% of the time). I have my own rules laminated and hanging above my workstation.

Have a great week!

2023년 2월 21일

노트

Someone sent me a message asking about my cash out spot. That should read 4052, not 4152. My bad. Coffee shortage! =)

2023년 2월 22일

노트

The 12hr higher low closed at 4023, just fyi.