ES/SPY Monthly Perspective

Here is a monthly look at the ES. This is not meant as a gloom and doom chart, but simply a long term perspective of where price currently sits. With the break of 4500 price tapped the top of the long term channel. It is reasonable to expect a pull back at the this point or at the very least some sideways consolidation to allow some steam to come out of the balloon. On a relative basis the market remains in a very bullish position. Even a 1000 point pull back would keep it in a healthy uptrend longer term. The risk we have now is the massive increase in market participants. Any significant correction is likely to very harsh and quick. This poses the most risk to people utilizing a lot of margin. So although longer term we are likely to continue higher and see 5000 and 6000 one day the goal is not to get wiped out in a massive flash crash along the way. In other words being in the market long term is still the best place to be, but being in the market and highly levered is probably not a great idea.