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ES - more whipsaws please

업데이트됨

After watching the price action today it looks clear to me that a meltdown 3-400 points will probably not occur. I'm seeing another ABC down - the C of B looks like it's starting today. After that, one more up for a dramatic C would make sense as the mid time frame RSI will have nice bullish divergence at the low. This move down (if it occurs) should be finished by Friday.

So while we probably break the near term lows, the lower BB or near there should be support and another rally up to 4k or so to confuse everyone should take place.

노트

put call again quite low - equities ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio

SPX put call slightly elevated - larger traders ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_spx_put_call_ratio

노트

yellow trendline is very important to the market - look at all the saves there. Gapping below that tomorrow (if it happens) would be bearish and I think would confirm the C wave down.

노트

so far it looks like we're in 3 of C. They are breaching the yellow line pre market - bearish. I fast move down to 3750 area would be a buy in my opinion.

노트

they are trying to save this level, so it's clear - if they can save it - it's bullish, if they can't - it's a short.

노트

looks like it broke, wait to see open reaction. Gap down and go would be ideal, longs trapped and shorts can't get into position.

노트

if they gap and go down this morning, wait for a test of the bottom of the triangle for entry.

노트

lower level of triangle reached, expecting a break, retest for a bit and then lower for the rest of today and maybe into tomorrow.

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won't be any large bounces in this C wave down

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backtest of triangle, if it's a C the next move down will be very strong

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IF they can get over the upper triangle trendline again it will have to be seen as bullish. I don't expect it but you never know.

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Stop hunt right to the upper trendline, very weird and fast price action, cannot tell which way this is going to go. Keeping stops tight in case this reverses....

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everyone is watching the triangle and MM's are playing around with everyone's expectations of what's supposed to happen (including mine)

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still holding the lower triangle - frustrating.

노트

This COULD BE a triangle for B, a triangle within a triangle - very interesting. Note the RSI is quite low compared to other lows. Be careful either short or long. Personally taking some profit in case this plays out since I have to go out for the afternoon. The market can be really hard sometimes!