ES/SPY Weekend Levels (June 21-24)

2022년 6월 21일

SUMMARY

Market continues to make new lows weekly. All sentiment indicators are reading max pain setting up for at least a short term bounce. Levels below current price getting bunched up. A lot of fib levels and extensions finding confluence in the zone above the 2020 peak. Any positive news could lead to a strong relief rally. Small RSI divergence is also in play hinting at a chance for quick reversal. That said a flush lower to complete the 3 drive pattern identified last week still possible. Highlights below.

• Bias remains Bearish. Below 9/21/55 EMAs
• Coming off big reversal post FOMC Rate hike of 75 Basis Points closing week down 5.76%
• S&P – 23% from ATH
• Bearish sentiment at maximum levels
• RSI divergence now in play
• Potential short squeeze off max pain sentiment
• Completion of 3 drives pattern still possible

EVENTS

Monday US Market closed
Tuesday Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home sales & Fed heads speak
Wednesday Canadian CPI, Fed Powell & Evans speak
Thursday Jobless claims, US PMI data Powell testifies & EIA Crude Inventories
Friday Univ. Michigan Sentiment & US Home Sales.

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday US Market Closed
Tuesday LEN
Wednesday WGO, KBH
Thursday CAN, FDS, RAD,FDX, SWBI
Friday CCL, KMX

BULLISH NOTES
Oversold Conditions
RSI Divergence.
Max bearish sentiment
Potential relief rally/short squeeze
Potential dovish comments from Fed heads
Potential drop in yields.

BEARISH NOTES

Potential 3 drives completion
Hawkish fed head comments
Spike in yields
Bearish Gamma squeeze
Self fulfilling prophecy syndrome

2022년 6월 21일

노트

3 Drives reminder.

2022년 6월 21일

노트

4H look at the ES. Solid bounce this morning .First target to the upside is the 9 ema. Above the June 15th pivot. Above the Jun 15th pivot I will be looking for the gap fill.
Possible reversal at anytime.

2022년 6월 22일

노트

Bounce was short lived and reversed as it ran back into the 1.13 Fib X. Pulled back overnight 50 pts and is now trading in a range between the Jun 15th high and the Jun 17th low. Likely waiting on the Powell testimony at 930am.

2022년 6월 22일

노트

Forming basing pattern off of Powell's testimony. 9 ema and then Jun 15th high key levels to the upside to confirm base.

2022년 6월 23일

노트

Here is a morning look on the 1H. Price still below the June 15th pivot & the 9 ema but continues to make higher highs. Needs to stay above the trendline to maintain the upward momentum.

2022년 6월 24일

노트

Above the Jun 15th pivot which lines up perfectly with 382 fib. Targeting the gap and the 21 ema now. above that would the 618. May need a retest of the 382 before pushing higher.