First Sell/Short Signals since January - Trends

4월 4일

Longer video but hopefully it clarifies my position in the market. I do NOT have a short position yet, but I am looking for one at this point. I might wait until either the close of the day depending on where we are OR take a short position if the overall day goes negative.

Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5724 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5277 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High
2Hr - 5278 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High
3Hr - 5291 Downtrend (4/1/2024) Higher Low*
4Hr - 5260 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5087 Uptrend (2/22/2024) Higher High
Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High

In order to try and keep on point I actually wrote some notes for this video (yes, in spite of the length, I felt I really tried to keep on point). What I will do instead of rewriting any of the video is just copy and paste my notes into here.
NYFANG / MAG 7 still pulling market up (down day even though they had gone up .6%)

Economic Calendar
JOLTs was uneventful
NonFarm Employment is up - Job Growth seems good
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices lower - Includes pay being lower
Powell Speaks - Nothing really new
- Wants to cut rates (already priced in)
- Data will drive decision (says that every time)

Today - Jobless Claims (No expectation other than strong job market)
Tomorrow - Unemployment (Not expecting anything new)
- Even if it does, how do you price in this news? Is good bad, or bad good? Good is good?

Trends;
30m, 1hr, 2hr all in lower highs
3hr had a higher low but if uptrend hits, will now be lower high
So 30m to 3hr trends call for lower

4hr, 6hr, 12hr - call for rebound up

Daily is still sitting massively overbought

Weekly is normal bull market signal even if we go lower
Monthly just hit uptrend, but Monthly has NEVER done anything but higher highs and higher lows back to the 80s (no data past that)
For that to change we would have to go below 3846
- EVEN IF THAT HAPPENED, no historical data to explain what that could mean (Must like we saw with the lower low of a weekly trend)

Sell Signals
The shorter term trends are calling for lower movements
Daily uptrend is well, well, well overcooked
MACD Momentum (Daily) has crossed below zero line. Last time we had that was January when I traded shorts several times and made money. Has historically been MOSTLY accurate.
MACD Momentum had a sell signal 3/26 but it was after down days so uneventful
Weekly Overbought RSI/MFI

Buy signals (or at least cautionary flat moving signals)
Trends of 4hr and above call for
MACD itself is not below the zero line (so not a prime bearish / shorting environment)

Hope you found the information helpful. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.

4월 4일

노트

Job data came in today and it was....
Uneventful as expected. Slight increase in initial jobless claims, but slightly lower in continuing jobless claims.
So more people became jobless, but more people who were jobless, found jobs. All noise, I don't expect it to have much impact.

4월 4일

노트

So we got a 4hr uptrend signal at 5300. That is a relatively flat higher high, from 5296 on 3/20/2024 to 5300 of today, so a 4 point rise.

The 3hr is still currently signaling, and should signal at 10am unless it drops below 5290ish. It will be a lower high as I discussed in the video unless it pops above 5326 in the next 8 minutes (I doubt it).

Small push up from the jobs data, but I don't know it'll stick as again, I don't think it really shared anything new or insightful. I'll check in at the end of the day if I take a position at the close (or again, if the overall day turns negative.) While I am short term bearish, I'm very cautiously short term bearish.

4월 4일

노트

I did go short at 5280 today. Slightly higher than my initial expectation, but when I trade I decide my exit point first, and after the move upward my initial exit point was to be 5310 (it will now be 5270ish).

Now we see if this movement down holds out or we skyrocket just after. My initial goal is 5100, but we will see how it looks when/if we get there

4월 5일

노트

You can see the market is confused about what to make of a slightly lower unemployment rate. Already discussed this data point and that it would be a confusing data point regardless if it was higher or lower.

On the trends side, we have lower lows and lower highs on the 30m, 1hr, 2hr, and 3hr. The 4hr and 6hr higher lows remain violated like I discussed already and don't appear to be good support levels.

We hit a higher low on the 12hr at the close of yesterday around 5203. Looking to see if that is a support trend or if we violate that also and see follow through of the drop from yesterday.

So far, any major move down has reversed to a higher move almost the next day.