6/26: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan

Recap

Last week, ES experienced a red week for the first time in five weeks, beginning a corrective leg. The dip was slow and labored, indicating a possible bull flag pattern. The market remains choppy and complex, with a focus on reacting to real-time trade plans rather than predicting trends.

The Markets Overnight

🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Near unchanged
🌎 US Index Futures: Unchanged
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Down

World Headline

Despite the recent military turmoil over the weekend, it seems to have had little impact on the markets. However, traders remain vigilant in monitoring any developments in this potentially volatile situation.

Key Structures

Some core structures to watch include the possible bull flag pattern, the 4375ish level as the most recent breakout zone, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white.

Support Levels

4382, 4374, 4358, 4340, 4317, 4286, 4270-75

Resistance Levels

4411-13, 4422, 4452, 4467, 4485, 4495-4500, 4520-25, 4546, 4567-70

Trading Plan

For today, the bull case begins with watching support of the bull flag structure, with possible exposure at the reclaim of 4393. The bear case starts with the failure of 4374, requiring a strong bounce or two and a good period of acceptance before considering a short at 4371. In both cases, focus on level-to-level profit-taking and reacting to real-time trade plans.

Wrap Up

Today's session is expected to be complex, with a potential re-test of 4400 if the 4382-74 support zone holds. As long as this zone holds, the market could test 4413, 4421, and then try higher. If 4374 fails, it's time for another short. Stay focused on reacting to real-time trade plans and avoid trying to predict trends.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
es_fSPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Support and ResistancetradingviewTrend AnalysisTrend Lines

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