US Employment Figures: July 2020

The markets reacted positively from the news that employment data saw a bounce, but we need to be honest with ourselves here. Several states 'reopened for business' through this period; but the participation rate is the lowest it has been since the end of WW2. Just think about that for a minute. The lowest employment participation since soldiers returned to an economy that did not need them.

A little over 4 weeks ago, NBER officially declared the US was in a recessionary period; and included the following in their statement:

"...it concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions."

This is from a committee that took almost a year to decide if the GFC was a recession or not. Rome is burning, and everyone is looking at the pretty pretty flames...