The Bear Party Hasn't Even Started Yet

2023년 3월 11일

Every major crash in modern history came after rate hikes completed. Either during the plateau or during the first cuts. No bulls can explain how we're going to avoid that fate this time. We hiked twice as fast as 2007 and 2018 hikes, yet somehow there's gonna be a soft landing? Yeah right LOL

It's already looking like a broadening wedge like 2000; and about to break the 13yr trendline for the first time since 2020.


See inflation chart below:

• Worst case scenario(red), we get rapid deflation that causes a 6 month bull run at first, but ends with devastating crash. Like 2019, however we can't afford to write more stimulus checks. So there will be a depression, not a recession. No V recovery.
  
  
• Best we can hope for is more inflation(yellow); so the government can try and print it's way out of debt. Chop sideways roughly -50% +100% for a decade or more.
  
  
• Pipe dream is green, the Fed managing to thread the needle and get inflation between 0-3% for years to come. All while the U.S. Treasury manages to service it's interest payments, despite failing to close the gap between tax receipts and spending. This is not going to happen. It's physically impossible to produce 5M qualified workers overnight to fill the gap between job openings and job seekers. Layoffs won't help either. By then the recession is in full swing. Higher taxes coming as well. Growth is dead.
  

2023년 3월 11일

노트

Notice we've been on a deflationary trend for many years now... not good