EURUSD on watch - likely down but watch for false breakouts

2018년 7월 28일

This is based on futures (CME) to give a better volume indication. there is a symmetrical triangle and within it a head and shoulder. Symmetrical triangle would point to a continuation of trend i.e. downtrend and the Head and shoulder would also seems to be indicating a down trend. But if you see weekly the price is at a potential support. so what can happen?
Answer as usual is anything - trading is not a prediction business. its about applying known / experienced lessons to know when one might want to act..
so in that spirit - now is the time to watch EURUSD... not to act right away.
Now based on volume you see that the left shoulder to head has proportionately higher volume compared to the right shoulder - which could mean that head and shoulder would not fail i.e. the price will decline.... BUT if you see last week's daily engulfing bearish candle on Thursday - 26 July - its volume is not higher than the bullish candle on 20th July .. i would have liked to see a good high volume push down .. to suggest that there is a strong interest... but there is still time.. so lets watch how the next week performs .. if we see a good high volume break downwards which closes below the triangle i.e. below the neck line of head and shoulder then we may want to WAIT for the retest and IF it still closes below the neck line - GO short

Reason to emphasise on waiting for retest is that there is a good probabiltiy that it might be a false break and the price closes back above the neck line after breakout in which case you want to go long.. same thing on the upside..i.e. on break out wait for the retest of the triangle trend line then go long...