DXY 1W RSI hit its 5 year Resistance. -3% correction expected.

2021년 11월 16일

The U.S. Dollar Index's long-term Cycles aren't a mystery. I've posted quite a few analyses on its long-term cyclical behavior including those below:

This time, having broken above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and all short-term patterns, it is time to look at the long-term indicators once more. The most important of those is the RSI on the 1W time-frame, which has just hit the 70.000 Resistance that has been holding for +5 years. As you see every time the RSI hit that level (red arrows), the price pulled back. In December 2016 it was the peak of that Cycle while in August 2018 it was the first pull-back within a Channel Up that lasted for more than a year.

That most recent pull-back however was initiated on the week that followed the RSI 70.000 peak. It is therefore possible to see DXY making a Higher High early next week and then start pulling back. A -3% pull-back from a new emerging Channel Up Higher High would place the correction around 93.550. If however that escalates to a larger correction, we'll have to wait and see the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to confirm that.



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