DXY – TRADES | MTF ANALYSE | KW48

2022년 11월 26일

In today's post I present relevant marks of the DXY for the next week, which could support the one or the other, in their own analysis.

= the technical analysis approaches, are shown in individual images in the post. So that an individual interpretation of the respective - standing alone - is possible.

= the title picture shows an example, of a possible trade. This is one of many possible setups because the current course isn`t able to take a clear direction.



PERSONAL ASSESSMENT

If you look at the price in the higher time frames, you can quickly see that "without" another correction, we have been in free fall.

Thus, an intermediate correction in the smaller time frames is long overdue and could possibly await us next week, with a rising USD / DXY.


This just announces itself with a MACD divergence, in the small-time units. This does not mean that the price must immediately react to it, however, over the next few days after a possible small sell-off, the whole thing can run in the opposite direction.


Why this is so, I explain to you in the following.



MARKET MAKERS MOVE THE PRICE.

The DXY has been in correction for 2-months and many market participants assume a further USD value decline.

And exactly there is the existing problem,
-> "many market participants" are on the USD short side.


If you look a little bit into the TRADING of the HEDGE funds and banks, you will quickly come to the conclusion that without their participation, the market will not move.

1. from the moment the price moves permanently in one direction, it is no longer interesting for large investors.

2. their opportunities to make money are very small, which is why they have to reverse the market direction or initiate a consolidation.


This in turn is due to the following reasons:

- The position sizes of these investors are too large to be executed in a normal market environment.

- For this reason, you can e.g. only build LONG positions if enough investors sell to you = go SHORT.

- Thus, when the market falls, they can build a LONG position piece by piece, without having a "visible" influence on the market.


Then, when you decide that their position size has been successfully filled, let the price go in the opposite direction.

- During the e.g. upward movement, profits are then taken piece by piece where liquidity is highest so that the market does not break away again after these profit-takings.


So that you are prepared for both scenarios (LONG / SHORT), I have carried out the analysis combined with the different time units (monthly, weekly, daily and INTRA-Day) and in the following with chart images.



The following methods are used and shown below:

- MULTI TIME FRAME ANALYSIS
- TREND LINES + TREND CHANNELS
- SUPPLY&DEMAND ZONES
- FIBONACCI LEVEL
- MACD



MONTHLY TIME FRAME










WEEKLY WINDOW










DAY WINDOW










INNER DAY TIME WINDOW

4h + LONG





4h + SHORT





1h





4h Divergence - MACD - Intraday








> Feel free to discuss this in the comments and share our perspectives, I would be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.


If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it.

Thank you and happy trading!

2022년 12월 16일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

The course has run like a picture book:

1. First, the market wanted to test its strength and has approached the 0.328 FIBO.
- this FIBO was with a 4h + 1D SUPPLY zone, an impenetrable resistance.

2. for this reason, the further down-sale was initiated and now the 1.618 FIB target I drew in the chart was successfully reached.

So for anyone who looked closely at the IDEA, there would have been two potential trades in.

1. LONG = 1,350 PIPs / 1.33%.
= Entry after recapturing the broken support to the 0.328 FIB.

2. SHORT = 1,850 PIPs / 3.15%
= entry when reaching the 0.328 FIB (combination with 4h + 1D Supply)
-> Profit at the 1.618 FIB