Bitcoin can ONLY rise if the Dollar DXY falls

업데이트됨

Hello, it's been a while since I published a chart on TV. It's time again :)

There is one very simple rule or mechanism that has a very big influence on Bitcoin price development.

There are of course the halvings, then there is adoption, but then there is a strong positive correlation with stocks and anti correlation with the Dollar.

So a strong dollar will mean that BTC will not rise, even experience bearmarkets.

The dollar is currently rising strongly, fueled by the interest rate hikes by the FED.

8-9 rate hikes are expected this year. So only if the FED decides to not raise rates as aggressively as they said they would, can Bitcoin rise, because that would lead DXY to massively dump.

I don't like it, nobody likes it, but IF we get a rally this year, thus fully rests on the decisions of the FED.

If they continue to aggressively hike => DXY bullmarket => BTC stays flat or Bearmarket

If they decide to become more dovish, not hike as aggressively => DXY dumps => BTC rally

It's really as simple as that currently. Just my thoughts on the current situation.

노트

Here we are, because DXY just won't correct and keeps being strong, BTC fell to the summer 2021 support area.

I think we'll revisit the MA200 at 22k, and then if we are lucky, we might get an expanded flat correction which will lead into a new rally.