The DXY is just getting started

2022년 9월 21일

This doesn't necessarily mean bearish, but it does mean we're going to see some really, really ugly times ahead. Overall, the DXY is bullish on a 3 month timeframe. We really haven't popped the inflation bubble or the rate hike bubble or anything of the sort, yet.

Of course, we will correct at some point - but it will only confirm relative bullishness. Right now, the fed is raising rates, and must continue lest their own rates overtake the 2y and 10y bond. CPI will continue to go up as it ever has, and inflation will continue to be attacked for the time being because we effectively confirmed that this is working.

It would be nice if the fed printed a lot more stimulus to everybody making under 500k/yr scaling up as it approaches lower income levels, but who am I to provide common sense logic when people are at a point that even paying bills is difficult? Clearly a shocker.

What I anticipate for tomorrow is yet another rate hike (everyone knows it), and my guess is 1% - but obviously I could be wrong. So far though, feds seem happy with the correction so nothing really is telling me otherwise. The closest ideas to what I see are basically: https://www.thelykeion.com/into-year-end-its-all-about-policy-makers/

We're also heavily, heavily macro bearish on BTC1! and SPX. Here are the levels I'm watching for on both, effectively.





So I'm long DXY, absolutely. But everything else from Gold to Crypto to Forex, the only thing I am guessing may go up is the energy sector (re: oil eventually, but not before crashing - due to both https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-14/iea-trims-oil-demand-estimates-as-lockdowns-deepen-china-slide
) and also https://www.naturalgasintel.com/u-s-oil-production-recedes-as-demand-drops-global-outlook-cloudy-amid-recession-headwinds/
.

See you at the bottom.