DXY – Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis | Major Support Test Ahead

DXY – Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis | Major Support Test Ahead - DEC 2025
Previous Analysis: https://in.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/IFfI0KeQ-DXY-MONTHLY-ANALYSIS-01-JUL-2025-96-75/

The US Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be completing a major corrective (A-B-C) structure after topping around 114.78, which is potentially the Wave ⑤ top of a long-term cycle. The index has retraced significantly and is now testing an important support zone that will determine the next long-term direction.

📍 Key Technical Highlights
🔹 Wave ⑤ Top: Formed near 114.78
🔹 Completed Wave A & B, currently in Wave C decline
🔹 Price retesting long-term trendline and Fib support area
🔹 Possible Wave (4) bottom in progress – confirmation pending

📈 Key Resistance Levels
Level Description
99.55 Immediate rejection zone
102.00 Major breakout confirmation
110.19 Strong structural resistance
114.78 Previous cycle high

📉 Key Support / C-Wave Target Zone
Support Range Notes
91.55 – 90.65 Near-term support
87.64 Structural support
83.60 – 81.55 High-probability Wave C completion zone
75.77 – 70.69 Extreme correction scenario
🔍 RSI Observation

RSI forming bullish divergence
Testing long-term support trend from 2008-2011 lows
Indicates downtrend exhaustion signs, but needs confirmation

Scenario Outlook
🟥 Bearish Continuation Preferred
As long as 99.55 – 102.00 holds as resistance,
➡️ Probability favors continuation lower into 83–81 zone to complete Wave II
🟩 Bullish Breakout Invalidates

A monthly close above 102.00
➡️ Could signal trend reversal targeting:
110.19
122.21
129.50
even 152+ in Wave III

Conclusion
📌 Long-term correction likely not finished
📌 Major bottom expected in 83–81 region unless 102 breaks
📌 Wave II final stage approaching – watch price action closely

Disclaimer
Elliott Wave analysis for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade with proper risk management.

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