Dollar Index to Reach and Break its Sept 2022 High
업데이트됨
Dollar index weekly chart still looks incredibly bullish long-term.
First, we have a basic falling wedge pattern with targets at 1x and 1.5x measured moves up from the breakout of its wedge.
As confluence, I've drawn an trend-based fib extension from the Sept 2022 High -> July 2023 low -> October 2023's high from the wedge break (inverted).
Items of Note:
For TP 1
Present resistance to a move up is the ~106-108 area around the last two sets of weekly highs from Oct 23' and those made last month, or the 0% fib on the chart at 107.348. Once we get above that we should see it head towards TP 1 and the Sept-Oct 2022 highs.
For TP 2
The final test will be breaking above TP 1 and the 50% fib (September 2022 high) before making a new high around TP 2.
Beyond TP 1 and 2
I expect it will continue above both targets once they've been reached, even with a decent possibility of seeing 1980s ATHs.
First, we have a basic falling wedge pattern with targets at 1x and 1.5x measured moves up from the breakout of its wedge.
As confluence, I've drawn an trend-based fib extension from the Sept 2022 High -> July 2023 low -> October 2023's high from the wedge break (inverted).
Items of Note:
- Very strong Wedge break back in August - October of 2023
- Very weak re-test attempt in December of 2023, making a higher low than the July 2023 low that led into the breakout, only wicked down to top of a long-term support level; failing to close at or below.
- Falling Wedge's measured targets TP 1 and 2 line up precisely with its 0.382 and 0.786 fibs from its trend-based fib.
For TP 1
Present resistance to a move up is the ~106-108 area around the last two sets of weekly highs from Oct 23' and those made last month, or the 0% fib on the chart at 107.348. Once we get above that we should see it head towards TP 1 and the Sept-Oct 2022 highs.
For TP 2
The final test will be breaking above TP 1 and the 50% fib (September 2022 high) before making a new high around TP 2.
Beyond TP 1 and 2
I expect it will continue above both targets once they've been reached, even with a decent possibility of seeing 1980s ATHs.
Links to earlier / related ideas below.
액티브 트레이드
A double-bottom is attempting confirmation right now on the daily chart:This could lead to a move up to 106-107, which would place us in a danger zone against risk assets (crypto, stocks, metals for example - or the vast majority of market assets gaining value against the US dollar)
액티브 트레이드
Here's an updated chart showing my danger zones for risk assets, the first which we may move into any moment now, the latter which could spell the end of many bull markets or market recoveries, should DXY continue up beyond 112-114 and then 118-120ish:
관련 발행물
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