DXY Mid-Term Direction

5월 8일

Here's what I see for DXY, along with potential mid-term target.

I think we are in the middle of a three drive up pattern. We should have retraced down to 104 to hit the 61.8 fib, as we did in the first drive. However we only made it to the 50% of second drive before bouncing back up, likely because of renewed yen weakness after intervention.

Yet the 1.618 ratio can still stay consistent in this channel. If this trend plays out, I see target of 107.7. However, should BOJ/MOF intervention again, DXY will decline.

If this happens, or other news breaks that causes DXY to dump, I'll be looking at the white dotted line for support. The bottom blue lines of this channel act as S2 & S3.

I will also be keeping my out for a closure below 104, which would invalidate this analysis.

All of that being said, It appears we are at the beginning of the third drive up. This is supported by the price pattern and harmonic ratios, as well as the amount of time we have spent in each uptrend and down trend. As displayed in my chart, each downtrend lasts about half as long (in bars), as each uptrend.

This is NOT financial advice. Do your own research. I simply want to share my ideas as I learn, and welcome any feedback!

Good luck!