U.S. Dollar Index – Structural Outlook

After eight months of sustained weakness in the USD, we now observe a clear phase of accumulation within a macro demand zone, precisely aligned with both the Fair Value (50%) retracement of the previous major dealing range and the macro VAL (Value Area Low).

This confluence is reinforced by the anchored macro VWAP, confirming institutional positioning around the lower boundary of value — a zone of equilibrium where absorption typically precedes expansion.
Structurally, the pattern represents a failed auction / spring within the macro value area, a classical Wyckoff signature of reaccumulation before a potential markup.

Although no COT report was released this week due to the U.S. government shutdown, both the hawkish cut and the U.S.–EU yield curve differential support the view of a reaccumulation phase and the likelihood of renewed dollar strength in the coming weeks.