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DJI (WALL STREET) - GET READY!!

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If you can't see a rising contracting wedge, and price struggling near the top - and if you don't know what that means, why are you trading a live account? Did I say there was a guarantee of anything? Did I predict anything? I did NOT!.

Disclaimer: This is not an encouragement to trade securities or alter anyone's open positions. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.

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Has reality come home to the biggest bull run in any market, in history? Some may recall how the markets were bouncing hundreds of points north in minutes in the lead up to the US-China trade deal. In the end Trump did not get his 'complete deal' and settled for a phase one deal.

But now we have something new on the block. The COVID-19 corona virus has made China's economy very ill. Economic output of China has been estimated to have been reduced to 40 to 50% by the virus - and it may get worse before it gets better. You don't need to be an international business analyst to understand that in such a trade deal if one partner is terribly ill, there will be impacts on the other.

Current estimates by experts suggest that China is unlikely to recover in under a year. So what and how much is China likely to bring to the table in the Phase one deal? Not as much is what I would think.

The problem of the virus for China has been underestimated. People are still looking back at SARS recovering in 2003 as a model. That's wrong. The world has changed. China is now much more responsible for a big fraction of world GDP compared to 2003. In simple terms China has become integral to productivity in many other parts of the world.

With supply chains from and to China seriously disrupted all sorts of industries are affected. And nobody knows when the virus situation will be officially cured.

This is a human problem i.e. people cannot do their work in China as normal. Productivity is down and likely to remain down. Sorry - working from home just does not make up for much of it.

China's attempts at liquidity injections are likely to fail. Why? Because China underestimates the impact of the virus. Liquidity cannot restart an economy without people!

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Donald Trump is not gonna be happy! DJI tanked 400 pts on the open on Sunday night! screencast.com/t/cGxOWdz3MpNT

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At 15 min trend line could be important. Too late now.