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US Equities in Expanded Irregular Flat correction; Bearish Bat!

업데이트됨

B-D a perfect Fibo 1.618 extension to 1.05 x X-A in double top. This is extremely Bearish. Megaphone pattern suggests continuation of correction to tar zone ~27600.

Might expect a last push to ATH in April after target zone achieved. We got divergence in Transports DJT and Russel 2k RUT, both lower with mixed markets- toppy!

This is not investing advice; post is intended purely for education and your wry amusement! Trade with care, GLTA!

노트

Wow l@K how the algos run this show; hit 29374 again for <2 seconds today and BAM! Instant selloff back to flatline, +93 > +33, programmed to sell at ATH!

액티브 트레이드

Added on the secondary rally. making a pennant in SPX, NQ with H&S forming intraday. See where we close!

노트

Looks like algos programmed to sell at 29400, been there 3x today... might break thru on 4th push; or fail here. Gann, 'fourth push.'

노트

Clear H&S in all indexes now and broke under rising intraday TL... Bear signal. Rejected on fourth breakthrough attempt, failed rally IMO.

액티브 트레이드

Pretty clear Bear signal IMO. Engulfing candle if it close here, have to see EOD.
I closed 25% positions on the downdraft to lock in gains and rolled the short legs down and out! Monday will be a Funday, LOL! GLTA!!

액티브 트레이드

Getting higher on fewer issues advancing with divergence in RUT. 30K is in reach; can it get there? Who knows... accumulating SPXS at these prices.

액티브 트레이드

Watch the close on Thurs 13th. Has been selling on Fridays. If we get Engulfing Bear Candle to confirm the reversal this is a pivot point. Would make Wednesday 12 Feb an Exhaustion Gap with Island Reversal.

Probably get one more rally at least off any dip... ERs driving it now, Cisco disappointed. DJIA 30K is still within reach... nothing is certain but increasing uncertainty!! Volatility rising; but will it spike?! VIX is so tricky to trade... holding SPXS, the decay on inverse ETFs kills it; even when you're right, you can be wrong.

If we get a Big Sell then good R/R strat to buy puts on UVXY; the decay in it is terrible and they almost always pay after a VIX spike, VIX never stays high more than a few hours or days. BTFD rallies are the rule since October, but market must correct eventually, got gaps to fill back down to 28K... credit to Hungry_Hippo for this strategy! GLTA!!

노트

Made a Hangin Man. If it sells Friday will be a pinbar; Bear Signal. Shorting the retrace in SPXS.

노트

Yeah; very clear H&S intraday on SPX, NQ. Headed lower IMO!

액티브 트레이드

Down she goes....

매매 수동청산

Closed it on the Monday am weak opening, just had an odd feeling its gonna give a triple top. And here we go... fffs!!! Stop lossed for a small drawdown, only ~2%. The SPXS inverse ETF is a lousy investment; it time decays just like UVXY, maybe worse, Losing about 10c a day just on decay, damned thing went off .40c after the 4-day week! See hungry_hippos' related post on why UVXY is not for holding....

액티브 트레이드

Gave us a H&S on Weds/Thurs so shorted the EOD rally on 2/20, closed that position shortly after open on 2/21 for net 50% gain; probbaly worth shorting each retracement rally for the coming week IMO.

노트

Looks like we might get inverted H&S intraday; wait, watch....

액티브 트레이드

Closed out shorts early on, seems like the selling wave may be near complete, holding no pos over weekend, see if there's a last shakeout Monday, would be a BTFD oppy if it sells a bit more. Don't count on more selling IMO!

Appears to be a DT starting, but we have three minor waves down in past few sessions, might be due for a countertrend lift (Wave 2, up a bit if we get it).

Sell the rallies as we get them. IMO a 3rd Intermediate DT wave could kickoff next week, provoked by any Fibo retracement rally off these support lows.

Peace of mind over weekend worth more than any gamble on Monday futurz IMO!

노트

Well missed the gap but i bought calls in the opening panic. Could be one more down day Tues so not a big position. ~27600, 3200 +/- 2% should give a near-term bottom for a fierce bounce!

액티브 트레이드

Buying puts on UVXY and calls on SPY, entry positions. I do expect more selling Tues but typically the second day in a waterfall is ~ half as much as the big sell, SPX should find support in 3160-3180 target box for a near-term bounce. This is global news-driven panic which typically lasts just a few days... IMO the Bull is not done running and will get back up to charge again in March/April. Correction, not a crash; at these prices we're ~5% corrected, 6-10% is a likely target box, probably close now.

I'm in March 20 SPY 330 calls and March 13 UVXY puts, strike $14; the time decay on this ETF is terrific, as it contains only futures contracts, and so strongly favors shorts!

노트

Added VIX March 18 Puts, Strike $21, just 4 contracts cost 1k. Prices normalize; VIX >> $15; $6 ITM.

액티브 트레이드

Getting inverted H&S on intraday; lookout above!

노트

It's really clear IH&S pattern formed now and pivoting

매매 수동청산

Closed all the longs in the opening runup and made a penny off the VIX. Seems like a bit more pain is in store, too soon to long, probably too late to short; sitting out.

노트

Well another miss! Next trade looks like VIX puts, notice how it settled in high 20's, very little VIX movement on the second down day... ofc now it will tank off 5k lol!

액티브 트레이드

In VIX March 20 puts and UVXY April $15 puts. Time decay on the ETF strongly favors shorts!

노트

Added on the pullback to close AM gap. Not in calls yet; still room below down to 295 on SPY... an old gap to close! VIX fluctuates around 25-27 now, probly not going over 30 IMO.

노트

Overnight trading at 3080 support; if it holds this will put in bottom here IMO

노트

IMO we got a near term bottom; higher lows intraday; might sell once more but i shorted VIX at 36 in April $20 puts and added to UVXY $15 puts. Should bounce IMO.

노트

Yes, well.... at this rate the price of equities will return to 1990 valuation within 3 weeks! 1K pips a day, who would have thought it!? At noon today I looked and thought; aha, nice, lifted well off the LOTD... but then found the LOTD at the EOD!

Pretty confident that a 3k pip correction over four sessions takes us into oversold condition... target for SPX was to close the October gap at 2949, got within a shout of it today, expect to see it Friday and trading very close in SPY after hours. VIX spiked twice to 37, at open and EOD. Exceeded my wildest expectations.

You can hardly trade a market that defies all reason and belief... VIX won't stay up long IMO. When it pivots, the relief rally will be ferocious... but will we see another 1K day Friday?! Stay tuned...

노트

Amazing. Simply inconceivable! (I dont think that word means what you think it means...)

DJIA at 24.7k back in old trading range, which was fair value and recurring support. SPX 2880 same. Could it sell furthe?! Ofc, but 4K in a week has set back to last summer, lol... VIX at 49... stunning. IMO it won't last long, tentatively buying some longs now, SPXL trades near the 52-week low. Shorting UVXY at $25.

Relief rally will be terrific when market finds the bottom... likely close IMO. Could go off another 10% on Monday? Sure, a Black Swan might happen. So dont bet the farm! GLTA... insane, simply madness!

노트

In Dec 2018 VIX peaked at 30. Is why I imagined it would not break over that. At 49 is a monster spike not seen since Feb 2018. These don't stay up more than a week!

Shorting UVXY in April puts, the $15 strikes trading for ~$1 now. Might get a better price on Monday; might not. Won't have to wait long IMO...

I notice a series of higher tiny lows intraday, sure looks like we grinding out a bottom here... O WOW!!! LOL!!! L@K NOW!!!

see my related post and link to market internals now at same extreme bear level as 24 Dec 2018. Can't last long even if it dumps a bit more. GLTA!!!

매매 수동청산

Closed all the longs and VIX shorts intraday on the rising wedge. Risk is terribad.

IMO is near bottom but Monday could be really ugly, might get a final pounder.

Never seen anything like this, even 2008 had bounces... fgs!!

Staying out to lick my wounds... a trader's tragedy.

노트

VIX gave us a shooting star after all, sure looks like the bottom is in, We got a diamond consolidation pattern, same we saw in 2018 after the Feb meltdown.

IMO we gonna get a vertical V- retracement to high FIBO, 0.786, maybe even 1.
Buying SPY and QQQ April calls Monday in the Open.

노트

All bets are off IMO. VIX could pop over 100 if the selloff continues Monday. Could be -20% by EOD on 2 March; or could dip and bounce; pure crapshoot now, going to Gambler's Anonymous LOL!!!

DaddySawbucks