Dow setting up for a corrective move lower

My TrueCast model is suggesting the Dow is vulnerable to a corrective sell-off to a target price of 16876.00. Creating a 10% variance on this target gives a range between 16889.69 and 16863.0. My timing models are suggesting this price target will likely be achieved sometime between the market open on Friday, July 18th and the market close on Monday, July 21st.