Well Well Well I'm back. It seems that we've had further conformation today of both the downward channel I drew as well as the declaration the 10 year Treasury Note Yields and the DJI are in a chaotic Dionysian dance, which seems volatile, in so far as you don't find the beauty in the chaos. Todays trading shows immediate correlations if you look at the minute charts, with yield lows reaching the .77-.823 initiating the DOW bulls and yield highs of .86-.847 initiating the warrior bears to come out and play:
9:32am
Dow-24207
9:47am
T Notes-2.86%
1:39pm -
Dow-23373
T Notes-2.778%
2:25pm-
Dow-24038
T Notes-2.847%
3:11pm-
Dow-23747
T Notes-2.822%
3:51pm
Dow-24369
T Notes-2.85%
4:00pm
Dow-24190
T Notes- 2.855%
Thus, you Apollonian form lovers can keep shouting volatility, while I say embrace the wine god and pour yourself a glass to see order in the chaos.
Moving on, we can see the downtrend channel drawn yesterday has now been tested briefly three times, only to retrace back upwards each time, a clear indicator that its formed some sort of support for the short term movement of the market. Because the market has moved clearly in sync with yield rates, most attempt to be predictive in the short term should take into account what the yield rates on the 10 year are while looking at the candlestick movement, however I've drawn the blue lines as a potential formation of a falling wedge, as the highs are falling more steeply than the lows. If this does come to form and the bulls come out, we should recognize this does not mean the correction is complete, as the market needs to break this downtrend channel before that sentiment can bear (pun intended) any weight. My gut says because the 100 day MA has not been such a strong support, its within reason even if the falling wedge is confirmed to expect a test of the 200 day MA or even the .386 retracement point perhaps not immediately, but over the short to medium term. This expectation I feel is merited by the fact the market has not found much if any bullish legs at all when rates have gotten above 2.85-2.86% point where it currently is now.
*This has been another PSA from your big friendly neophytic DOW Grizzly welcoming you to recognize before closing I am no expert and this is not financial advice..but also daring you to tell me how this is wrong!*
9:32am
Dow-24207
9:47am
T Notes-2.86%
1:39pm -
Dow-23373
T Notes-2.778%
2:25pm-
Dow-24038
T Notes-2.847%
3:11pm-
Dow-23747
T Notes-2.822%
3:51pm
Dow-24369
T Notes-2.85%
4:00pm
Dow-24190
T Notes- 2.855%
Thus, you Apollonian form lovers can keep shouting volatility, while I say embrace the wine god and pour yourself a glass to see order in the chaos.
Moving on, we can see the downtrend channel drawn yesterday has now been tested briefly three times, only to retrace back upwards each time, a clear indicator that its formed some sort of support for the short term movement of the market. Because the market has moved clearly in sync with yield rates, most attempt to be predictive in the short term should take into account what the yield rates on the 10 year are while looking at the candlestick movement, however I've drawn the blue lines as a potential formation of a falling wedge, as the highs are falling more steeply than the lows. If this does come to form and the bulls come out, we should recognize this does not mean the correction is complete, as the market needs to break this downtrend channel before that sentiment can bear (pun intended) any weight. My gut says because the 100 day MA has not been such a strong support, its within reason even if the falling wedge is confirmed to expect a test of the 200 day MA or even the .386 retracement point perhaps not immediately, but over the short to medium term. This expectation I feel is merited by the fact the market has not found much if any bullish legs at all when rates have gotten above 2.85-2.86% point where it currently is now.
*This has been another PSA from your big friendly neophytic DOW Grizzly welcoming you to recognize before closing I am no expert and this is not financial advice..but also daring you to tell me how this is wrong!*
