The DOW JONES symmetrical triangle + potential recession

2018년 7월 5일

For the last 6 trading days, the Dow failed to close above the 200 SMA on a daily timeframe (now at 24353), showing indecision, investors worrying. A symmetrical triangle formed and is a continuation pattern after the recent sell off, yet the break on either side depends on the geopolitical developments. Looking at the S&P 500, there is also a symmetrical triangle forming now.
With Trump’s trade war with basically everyone, Brexit at complete standstill with no plan, EU’s immigration troubles and emerging markets like Argentina suffering from the overly strong dollar, it seems like a recession is in the cards again.
One of the biggest signals is from the 10-year treasury constant maturity minus 2-year treasury constant maturity chart. When it starts to flatten it is a traditional signal before the recession. With geopolitical tensions, the situation seems rigged to blow, unless world leaders do come to a compromise, mostly dependant on Trump, investor panic might trigger further sell off in indices.
Tomorrow's development might give us future direction, pending order on the break would be useful. What are your thoughts, is recession possible soon?

Happy Trading!

2018년 7월 6일

노트

2018년 7월 6일

노트

The week ended on a surprising positive note, breaking on the upside after bad US data and dollar sell off, nearly reaching the 38.2% retracement.