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Germany´s DAX: Ready for a new ATH

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Expect the unexpected.

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Watch not only Germany´s DAX in the next days and weeks. Have a look to all european stockmarkets.

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Germany´s DAX is ready for the All Time High

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Quote:

‘Sell the inauguration’ speculation is stock-market ‘nonsense,’ says Wall Street bull

Published: Jan 14, 2017 2:15 p.m. ET

Expectations for at least a near-term stock-market correction once Donald Trump takes the presidential oath of office on Jan. 20 are running high. But one well-known Wall Street analyst argues that investors should shut out the speculation.
In a Friday note, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, observed that, based on client conversations, a number of investors are convinced stocks are set for a “meaningful correction.”
At the same time, he said, those clients aren’t looking for a prolonged bear market, but are instead cooling their heels in hopes that a pullback will offer better buying opportunities, particularly once the odds of Trump’s proposals becoming enacted is more clear.
marketwatch.com/story/sell-the-inauguration-speculation-is-stock-market-nonsense-says-wall-street-bull-2017-01-13

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Germany´s Mid Cap DAX (MDAX): New All Time High

invst.ly/33bfj

Germany´s MDAX yesterday was sold off but seller could not get control about this Index. Todays reaction is nothing else than a fresh all time high.

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Gold is breaking now the last uptrend wich i suppose was a coutertrend rally.

invst.ly/33ors
invst.ly/33ost

I am watching Gold as an indikator (fear) to forecast the next upmove for stockmarkets. For me it looks like starting by today this might happen now.

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Quote:
"French private sector output rises at fastest rate in 5-1/2 years"
Economic Indicators7 minutes ago (Jan 24, 2017 03:03AM ET)

Investing.com - French private sector activity rose at the fastest rate in five-and-a-half years in January, adding to optimism over the economic outlook of the euro zone’s second largest economy, according to data released on Tuesday.
The preliminary reading of the Markit services purchasing managers’ index came in at a nineteen-month high of 53.9 this month from 52.9 in December.

Economists had forecast an uptick to 53.2.

The manufacturing PMI ticked down to 53.4 from 53.5 a month earlier, in line with forecasts.
The composite output index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors rose to 53.8 from 53.4, beating expectations for 53.3. Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/french-private-sector-output-rises-at-fastest-rate-in-5-1-2-years-455205

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Italy: Consolidation Pattern. The FTSE/mib will rise above 20k
invst.ly/34plc

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Comment: FEB 15 2016| Germany's Allianz announced today a 3 Billion Euro Stockbuyback Program. Expect other DAX companies to follow. Stock repurchase programs are unusual in Germanies DAX 30.

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/allianz-proposes-share-buyback-up-to-3-billion-euros-after-fourth-quarter-profit-jump-460456

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Comment: Comment: Quote:

ZURICH (Reuters) - Allianz (DE:ALVG), Europe's largest insurer, proposed spending 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion) on buying back its own shares on Thursday after the Munich-based firm posted higher than expected profits and said it was adjusting its policy on budgeting for possible takeovers.
The company announced a 4.1 percent rise in the dividend to 7.60 euros per share after posting a 23 percent rise in its fourth-quarter net profit to 1.7 billion euros, beating the average of 1.54 billion euros forecast by analysts, according to a Reuters poll.
Net profit for the full year was up 4 percent at 6.9 billion euros, just ahead of the average of forecasts of 6.77 billion euros.
"In future, 50 percent of group net attributable income will still be returned to shareholders in the form of a regular dividend," the group said in a statement.
"However, Allianz no longer intends to link its budget for external growth to shareholder pay-outs in a three-year cycle.
"Rather, half of net income should be used as deemed appropriate to finance growth, or it will be returned to shareholders on a flexible basis."
The new 12-month buyback program which is due to start on February 17 remains subject to the company maintaining a Solvency II capital adequacy ratio of above 160 percent of the minimum requirement, Allianz said in a statement, and represents 4.2 percent of the group's current market capitalization.
"The year (2016) was filled with surprises, not all of them welcome, that challenged many assumptions, fueled geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, and that make 2017 difficult to predict," Chief Executive Oliver Baete said in a statement.
"Nevertheless, we feel confident enough to raise our operating profit target range," he said, referring to a target of 10.8 billion euros, plus or minus 500 million, in 2017.
Operating profit in 2016 rose 0.9 percent to 10.8 billion euros, which compared with an average of analysts' forecasts of 10.87 billion.

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Comment: MAR 01 2017: The DAX: Impressive weekly candle wipping out this widely anticipated "sell signal" from last friday. Germany´s DAX is ready for a new ATH. invst.ly/3d7vp

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Comment: MAR 15 2017: German GDP growth likely accelerated in Q1 2017
morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/TDJNDN_201703153115/german-gdp-growth-likely-accelerated-in-first-quarter-economics-ministry.html

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March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

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MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-closes-lower%2C-after-healthcare-vote-delay-468437

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MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3%3Fr%3DUS%26IR%3DT

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MAR 29 2017: After Hours DAX 12.240 - just 150 point missing for a new All Time High.

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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43

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APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:
Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source: thehill.com/policy/finance/329159-mnuchin-tax-reform-before-august-highly-aggressive-to-not-realistic

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APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source: reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-missile-idUSKBN17H0NL

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German economy booms as protectionist threat goes pop
investing.com/news/economy-news/german-economy-booms-as-protectionist-threat-goes-pop-478522