Germany´s DAX is ready for the All Time High

2017년 1월 11일

In 2015 Germany´s DAX sets the All Time Intraday High at 12.390.

From todays 11.665 there is only 725 points to go for the DAX. And no doubt about it: The DAX will make it.

Germany´s November Export Numbers have been the highest ever. The Earnings are expected to be at an all time high as well. The Dividens also. The German Midcap Index MDAX allready sets a fresh all time high. This means that the DAX has now the opportunitiy to jump directely to 12.390. Keep in mind the Germany´s DAX is taking some benefit from the record low Euro as well.

2017년 1월 11일

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2017년 1월 11일

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Siemens: Long Ledged Doji

Watch Siemens to close above 118 by Friday and expect a furhter upmove next week. The DAX is a market cap weighted index. Siemens and VW together can trigger 12k or higher for the DAX.

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2017년 1월 11일

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Allianz: Ready for a new all time high

The DAX needs 6% or 750 points to reach the former ATH. Allianz could rise 12,5% without any problems.

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2017년 1월 11일

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SAP: 90 Euro possible

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2017년 1월 11일

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Deutsche Telekom: 18 Euro means a 10% up move. Much more than the DAX would need right now.

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2017년 1월 11일

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BAYER: Next quarterly results important to break this longterm down trend.

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2017년 1월 11일

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BASF: Can rise any time 10% more. BASF & BAYER might report better than expected results. The lower Euro might push earnings and revenues.

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2017년 1월 11일

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Retail Investors Sentiment, 12.01.2017

DAX: 77% short
Dow: 82% short
SPX: 79% short

2017년 1월 13일

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2017년 1월 13일

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2017년 1월 15일

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Quote:

‘Sell the inauguration’ speculation is stock-market ‘nonsense,’ says Wall Street bull

Published: Jan 14, 2017 2:15 p.m. ET

Expectations for at least a near-term stock-market correction once Donald Trump takes the presidential oath of office on Jan. 20 are running high. But one well-known Wall Street analyst argues that investors should shut out the speculation.
In a Friday note, Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, observed that, based on client conversations, a number of investors are convinced stocks are set for a “meaningful correction.”
At the same time, he said, those clients aren’t looking for a prolonged bear market, but are instead cooling their heels in hopes that a pullback will offer better buying opportunities, particularly once the odds of Trump’s proposals becoming enacted is more clear.
marketwatch.com/story/sell-the-inauguration-speculation-is-stock-market-nonsense-says-wall-street-bull-2017-01-13

2017년 1월 15일

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Quote:

How long post-election rallies last after Inauguration Day — in one S&P chart
Published: Jan 14, 2017 3:37 p.m. ET

Stocks could slump as President-elect Trump becomes President Trump. That’s starting to sound like practically the consensus view.DoubleLine CEO Jeff Gundlach shared the chart during a Dec. 13 webcast, and it served as a chart of the day for MarketWatch’s Need to Know column. Gundlach has been sounding bearish on stocks, giving warnings this month and last month.
To be sure, with many pundits warning about an end to the Trump rally as his Jan. 20 inauguration nears, some contrarians have suggested near-term weakness won’t actually materialize.
MarketWatch columnist Kevin Marder has said the stock market just may surprise investors and keep rallying for months.
Source: marketwatch.com/story/how-long-post-election-rallies-last-after-inauguration-day-in-one-sp-chart-2017-01-13?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

2017년 1월 16일

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COT-Report:

Check the latest SPX CoT-Report:
wellenreiter-invest.de/Cot-daten/s-und-p-500-index

Large Specs since September 2016 are not able to time the market. The latest numbers are showing that large specs reducing theire net long positions once more.

What does this mean?
wsj.com/articles/billionaire-george-soros-lost-nearly-1-billion-in-weeks-after-trump-election-1484227167

All major US-Indices are close to ATH´s and Hedgefonds are betting for lower stockmarket prices. Any uptick in the SPX cost Millions of US-Dollar. Any suprise might be on the upside still. The downside potential is still limited.

2017년 1월 16일

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Investors Mood: Everyone is awating that stockmarket prices will fall. The DAX Chart ist telling a diffrent story: Nothing happens.
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2017년 1월 16일

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Investors "inteligence"
.
mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN14Z0XY

99,99% of al reports to this issue today explaining what Trump ---> said he wants to do. Non of those reports is asking, if he is allowed to do this. Trump is not. The WTO regulations are clear: The United Staates can not implement border tax to BMW. Also clear is the US Constitutional Law. US Presidents are not allowed to do this as well (by themsels). Investors believe, he can do and they sold today german Automakers.

2017년 1월 17일

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Donald Trumps vs. "one way street"

Donald Trump might believe, that international trade is a one way street. It is not. Trump is now fighting against Mexiko, Canada, Germany, Japan, China and the European Union as well.

Donald Trump until now is US-President elect "only" but with the European Union, Canada, Mexiko, Japan and China he made countires good for allmost 50% (!) of global GDP to his own and privat "enemies". Donald Trump never will be able to win any trade war or "war of populism" against the rest of the world.

Quote:
Chinese president to defend globalization in Davos
Economy4 hours ago (Jan 17, 2017 05:14AM ET)

By Noah Barkin

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping will defend globalization in the face of mounting public hostility in the West on Tuesday in a speech at the World Economic Forum that will underline Beijing's growing global role. Xi's appearance, a first for a Chinese leader at the annual meeting of political leaders, CEOs and bankers in Davos, comes as the part the United States plays as a force for multilateral cooperation on issues like trade and climate change is in doubt following the election of Donald Trump.

Europe, meanwhile, is pre-occupied with its own troubles, from Brexit and militant attacks to the string of elections this year in which anti-globalization populists could score gains.
This has left a vacuum that China seems eager to fill.
"It is no coincidence that Xi chose this year to make the trip up the magic mountain," said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, a U.S.-based political risk consultancy.
More than half a dozen senior Chinese government figures will be in Davos this week, far more than in past years. And a large number of sessions are focused on Asia, including one entitled "Asia Takes the Lead".
Source: investing.com/news/economy-news/chinese-president-to-defend-globalization-in-davos-453462

2017년 1월 17일

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My friend Vitaly is showing the path to DAX 11.800. Keep in mind that the ATH than is only 590 Points away - not more than a single weeks traiding range. Usually traders stop shorting an index if ever they see that like the DAX is closing in the former ATH (at 12.390).

Watch now Vitaly´s perfekt analysis. He got the lowest point. Buying the dips is todays action. Retail Traders got suprise by todays intraday strong up move. Vitaly not. Follow Vitaly on his side for other great trading ideas as well.

2017년 1월 17일

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Donald Trump is still not President of the USA. But he allready lost Asia to China (Cancelling the Trans Atlanic Partnerchip). Today in Davos China graps another chance to take global leaderchip. Trumps "border tax plans" will fail.

reuters.com/article/us-davos-meeting-china-idUSKBN15118V

Quote:

Davos | Tue Jan 17, 2017 | 1:30pm EST
In Davos, Xi makes case for Chinese leadership role

By Noah Barkin and Elizabeth Piper | DAVOS, Switzerland

Chinese President Xi Jinping offered a vigorous defense of free trade at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday in a speech that underscored Beijing's desire to play a greater global role as the United States turns inward.
In the first appearance by a Chinese leader at the annual meeting of political leaders, CEOs and bankers in the Swiss Alps, Xi also cautioned other countries against blindly pursuing their national interests, in an apparent reference to the "America first" policies of Donald Trump.
Real estate mogul and former reality TV star Trump, who will be inaugurated as U.S. president on Friday, campaigned on a promise to confront China more aggressively on trade.

2017년 1월 17일

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"Sell the Inauguration" ....

Todays Presidential approval rates showing very clear that Donald Trump is the most unpopular President since at least 40 years. Even Trump is blaming again "the polls" as rigged he has a similar situation in the election campaign. First he blamed "rigged polls" than he fired his team.

US-Congressmen and Women are elected for two years only. They will not follow a president with such low approaval rates for a longer time. Expect that Trump will stop his agressive tweets and become more calm for some weeks and month. If ever this might occur now than expect stockmarkets to go higher.

Quote:
Trump Enters Office With Historically Low Approval Rating

by Mark Murray

Donald Trump starts his presidency Friday with the lowest-ever ratings for an incoming president, but also with some signs of increasing optimism for the country, according to results from a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
A majority of Americans — 52 percent — say they disapprove of the way President-elect Trump has handled his transition and preparations for the presidency, versus just 44 percent who approve, which is down six points from only a month ago.
To put Trump's numbers into perspective, Barack Obama's approval rating was 71 percent before he took the oath of office in January 2009, and Bill Clinton's was 77 percent in December 1992.
(The NBC/WSJ poll didn't measure George W. Bush during his transition; his first job-approval rating, in March 2001, was 57 percent.)

Source: nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-enters-office-historically-low-rating-n708071

2017년 1월 18일

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Watch today:

Quote:

International +

Billionaire Wilbur Ross auditions before Congress

By Matt Egan January 17, 2017 17:11PM EST
Wilbur Ross is a billionaire investor unaccustomed to being under the spotlight or being questioned publicly. But that's exactly what is scheduled to happen on Wednesday when he auditions before the U.S. Congress to become commerce secretary.
Ross, who's made a fortune by investing in failing companies, will likely face questions during his 10 a.m. ET Senate confirmation hearing about President-elect Donald Trump's trade agenda to resurrect U.S. manufacturing jobs.
Source: money.cnn.com/2017/01/17/investing/wilbur-ross-trump-commerce-secretary-confirmation-hearing/

2017년 1월 19일

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Gold is breaking now the last uptrend wich i suppose was a coutertrend rally.

invst.ly/33ors
invst.ly/33ost

I am watching Gold as an indikator (fear) to forecast the next upmove for stockmarkets. For me it looks like starting by today this might happen now.

2017년 1월 19일

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Techs breaking the rising wedge to the upside for another upmove. This is a clear sign of a very strong momentum to the upside and this will not stop from one day to the other.

invst.ly/33p1b
invst.ly/33o-b

2017년 1월 19일

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Quote:

Japan business mood up on growth prospects, wary on outlook: Reuters Tankan
Economic Indicators5 minutes ago (Jan 19, 2017 06:10PM ET)

By Tetsushi Kajimoto and Izumi Nakagawa

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturers' morale rose for a fifth straight month in January to a 2-1/2 year high and the service sector's mood jumped to its highest levels since mid-2015, a Reuters poll showed, thanks to a weak yen and buoyant share prices.
The latest Reuters Tankan underscores growth prospects for the world's third largest economy, but uncertainty lies ahead after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on Friday, with his protectionist agenda casting doubts over the smooth conduct of global trade.
The Reuters' monthly poll - which tracks the Bank of Japan's key quarterly tankan - found confidence at manufacturers and service-sector firms slipping over the next three months.
In the poll of 531 large- and mid-sized firms, conducted between Jan. 4 and 17 and in which 266 responded, the sentiment index for manufacturers rose to 18 from 16 in December, driven by industries such as electronics and machinery.

Source:
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-business-mood-up-on-growth-prospects,-wary-on-outlook:-reuters-tankan-454466

2017년 1월 20일

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Donald Trump on dec. 20th 2017:

Quote:
Speaking at a pre-inauguration concert Thursday night at the Lincoln Memorial, which featured performances by Lee Greenwood, Toby Keith and 3 Doors Down, Trump told the crowd he vowed to be a president "for all our people."
"It's a movement like we've never seen anywhere in the world, they say. There's never been a movement like this. And it's something very, very special," Trump said. "And we're going to unify our country. And our phrase, you all know it -- half of you are wearing the hat, 'Make America great again.' But we're going to make America great for all our people, everybody. Everybody throughout our country. That includes the inner cities. That includes everybody."

Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/01/19/politics/obama-trump-transition-final-day/index.html

2017년 1월 20일

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Expect this money to come back if Investors aren´t longer affraid about Donald Trump.

Quote:

Investors pull cash from stock funds ahead of Trump inauguration
Economy42 minutes ago (Jan 19, 2017 07:10PM ET)

By Trevor Hunnicutt

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors pulled $3.1 billion from U.S.-based stock funds over the last week, Lipper data showed on Thursday, showing a waning appetite for risk ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. president.

The withdrawals are a first for U.S. stock funds this year, according to Lipper. The funds had been buoyed by Trump's November U.S. presidential election victory and the surprising equity rally that followed.
The Russell 2000 index of relatively small public U.S. companies has returned nearly 13 percent since the election.
Yet during the latest week, U.S. funds that buy shares in domestic companies posted $5.2 billion in withdrawals. By contrast, international stock funds added $2.1 billion.
"This could be the Trump rally coming to a natural end," said Pat Keon, senior research analyst at Thomson Reuters Lipper, "as the hard work of governing the country starts to come into play."
"We've seen some reversals of trends we've seen since the election," said Keon.

2017년 1월 20일

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NASDAQ Future: Close above yesterday intraday high confirms a strong uptrend and also a strong "buy" signal.
invst.ly/33yta

2017년 1월 23일

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Investors expecting for today an "inauguration sell off" - wich does not occur. Now follow the Mexican Peso to see, if "fear" might disappear and that stockmarkets will continue the rally as expected if you follow this trading ideas here.

2017년 1월 24일

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Quote:
"French private sector output rises at fastest rate in 5-1/2 years"
Economic Indicators7 minutes ago (Jan 24, 2017 03:03AM ET)

Investing.com - French private sector activity rose at the fastest rate in five-and-a-half years in January, adding to optimism over the economic outlook of the euro zone’s second largest economy, according to data released on Tuesday.
The preliminary reading of the Markit services purchasing managers’ index came in at a nineteen-month high of 53.9 this month from 52.9 in December.

Economists had forecast an uptick to 53.2.

The manufacturing PMI ticked down to 53.4 from 53.5 a month earlier, in line with forecasts.
The composite output index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors rose to 53.8 from 53.4, beating expectations for 53.3. Source: Investing.com - French private sector activity rose at the fastest rate in five-and-a-half years in January, adding to optimism over the economic outlook of the euro zone’s second largest economy, according to data released on Tuesday.

The preliminary reading of the Markit services purchasing managers’ index came in at a nineteen-month high of 53.9 this month from 52.9 in December.

Economists had forecast an uptick to 53.2.

The manufacturing PMI ticked down to 53.4 from 53.5 a month earlier, in line with forecasts.

The composite output index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors rose to 53.8 from 53.4, beating expectations for 53.3.

2017년 1월 28일

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Comment: Jan 27 2017

Watch todays Lindsey Grahams comment on twitter

Border security yes, tariffs no. Mexico is 3rd largest trading partner. Any tariff we can levy they can levy. Huge barrier to econ growth /1
1,092 replies 7,528 retweets 14,604 likes
Source: twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/824733324769951744

Simply put, any policy proposal which drives up costs of Corona, tequila, or margaritas is a big-time bad idea. Mucho Sad. (2)
twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/824734113412345856

Now check how many Senators Donald Trump can affort to loose more:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

Lindsey Graham made the point: Not Mexiko is paying "The Wall". It is the U.S. consumer. Guess how many more senators might vote with a "NO".

USDMXN follow this logic for sure. The peso today again strengthen against the US Dollar - no matter what Donald Trump is telling or "repeating".

2017년 2월 1일

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2017년 2월 1일

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Feb 01 2017

After 13 consecutive days of something like a "Trump nightmare" expect stockmarkets to return to daily business focused on earning and global growth. Watch the NASDAQ Comp for another unexpected ATH in the next days lead by APPL, FB & TSLA.

FB today: After hours plus 4 USD or 3%. Expect tomorrow a huge break away gap leading the comp higher. invst.ly/36rts

2017년 2월 2일

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Februar 02 2017: U.S. Retailers starts to fight back.

Quote:

Stop the Border Adjustment Tax
Don´t make hard working families pay more on essantiel products


Tell Congress No To The Border Adjustment Tax
Make your voice heard on how this misguided proposal will impact you, your family, and jobs in your local community.

Take Action

Quote: keepamericaaffordable.com/default.aspx

2017년 2월 8일

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Feb 08 2017 What ever happens in the White House or the Oval Office. Only Minuts or Hours later you can read anything in the news. This never happened before. Here is the reason why:

Quote: The Fix
The leaks coming out of the Trump White House cast the president as a clueless child

All White Houses leak. Sometimes the leaks are big, sometimes small. But there are always people willing to talk to reporters about the “real” story or about why the chief executive made a mistake in regard to some decision he made.

That said, I've never seen so much leaking so quickly — and with such disdain for the president — as I have in the first six days of Donald Trump's presidency.

Two recent examples:

1. This from the New York Times today on Trump's impulsiveness:

Mr. Trump’s advisers say that his frenzied if admittedly impulsive approach appeals to voters because it shows that he is a man of action. Those complaining about his fixation with fictional voter fraud or crowd counts at his inauguration, in their view, are simply seeking ways to undercut his legitimacy.

Yet some of his own advisers also privately worry about his penchant for picking unnecessary fights and drifting off message. They talk about taking away his telephone or canceling his Twitter account, only to be dismissed by a president intent on keeping his own outlets to the world.

2. This from WaPo on Trump's inauguration crowd estimates:

Trump’s advisers suggested that he could push back in a simple tweet. Thomas J. Barrack Jr., a Trump confidant and the chairman of the Presidential Inaugural Committee, offered to deliver a statement addressing the crowd size.

But Trump was adamant, aides said. Over the objections of his aides and advisers — who urged him to focus on policy and the broader goals of his presidency — the new president issued a decree: He wanted a fiery public response, and he wanted it to come from his press secretary.

Time and again, the image of Trump pushed by his “aides” is one of a clueless child — someone who acts on impulse, disregarding the better advice of people who know better. We know he needs to be managed or else he will say and do stupid things, the message seems to be. We're working on it. And what we know about Trump from his presidential campaign is that some of his top staffers — most notably Kellyanne Conway — often communicated to the boss via the media. What that strategy suggests is that Trump is influenced at least as much — and, in truth, likely more — by reading the sniping of his aides on background (meaning without their names attached) in the news than he is by private conversations. That the best way to reach him, change his mind or otherwise bend his ear is through a public airing of grievances. Trump has shown that his tendency to obsessively consume media — especially cable television — is unchanged in the six days since he has become president. He appears to be making policy decisions via things he watches or reads. (Remember Trump's famous/infamous statement that he got his military information and advice “mostly from the shows.”) At odds with all of this, however, is the fact that Trump is both deeply proud and hugely image-conscious. Having to read and watch allegedly loyal “aides” casting him as a sort of feckless child constantly in need of guidance wouldn't seem to be the sort of thing that would sit well with him.

Read more: washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/26/the-leaks-coming-out-the-trump-white-house-cast-the-boss-as-a-clueless-child/?utm_term=.8c00331214f9

2017년 2월 9일

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Feb 09 2017 Quote: Why Trump might play nice with Japan’s Abe

Published: Feb 9, 2017 5:04 p.m. ET

The White House is describing President Donald Trump’s plan to host Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his golf resort in Florida as a “gift,” a day ahead of the meeting in Washington between the two leaders. “That is a gift that the president is extending to the prime minister,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters Thursday about the planned weekend visit to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Abe and Trump are due to have talks at the White House Friday and the two are scheduled to travel together to the Palm Beach resort afterward. Questions have arisen about the ethics of the trip. Experts cited by The Wall Street Journal said the most appropriate option would be for Trump to host Abe at Mar-a-Lago as his guest, if Japanese government ethics rules permit. Source: marketwatch.com/story/mar-a-lago-visit-a-gift-to-abe-from-trump-white-house-says-2017-02-09

2017년 2월 13일

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Comment: FEB 13 2017: Follow closely todays Trump meeting with Canadas Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
edition.cnn.com/2017/02/12/opinions/justin-trudeau-meets-donald-trump-cohen/

2017년 2월 13일

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FEB 13 2017 Trump discovers the limits of his power
edition.cnn.com/2017/02/11/opinions/trump-white-house-power-limits-zelizer-opinion/index.html?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

2017년 2월 13일

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Comment: FEB 13 2017 Wall St. set to extend record run as 'Trump trade' rekindles
Stock Markets38 minutes ago (Feb 13, 2017 08:44AM ET)
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st.-set-to-extend-record-run-as-'trump-trade'-rekindles-459544

2017년 2월 13일

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FEB 13 2017: Impressive momentum pushes Germany`s MDAX to a new all time high invst.ly/39gcn

2017년 2월 16일

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Comment: FEB 15 2016| Germany's Allianz announced today a 3 Billion Euro Stockbuyback Program. Expect other DAX companies to follow. Stock repurchase programs are unusual in Germanies DAX 30.

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/allianz-proposes-share-buyback-up-to-3-billion-euros-after-fourth-quarter-profit-jump-460456

2017년 2월 16일

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Comment: Comment: Quote:

ZURICH (Reuters) - Allianz (DE:ALVG), Europe's largest insurer, proposed spending 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion) on buying back its own shares on Thursday after the Munich-based firm posted higher than expected profits and said it was adjusting its policy on budgeting for possible takeovers.
The company announced a 4.1 percent rise in the dividend to 7.60 euros per share after posting a 23 percent rise in its fourth-quarter net profit to 1.7 billion euros, beating the average of 1.54 billion euros forecast by analysts, according to a Reuters poll.
Net profit for the full year was up 4 percent at 6.9 billion euros, just ahead of the average of forecasts of 6.77 billion euros.
"In future, 50 percent of group net attributable income will still be returned to shareholders in the form of a regular dividend," the group said in a statement.
"However, Allianz no longer intends to link its budget for external growth to shareholder pay-outs in a three-year cycle.
"Rather, half of net income should be used as deemed appropriate to finance growth, or it will be returned to shareholders on a flexible basis."
The new 12-month buyback program which is due to start on February 17 remains subject to the company maintaining a Solvency II capital adequacy ratio of above 160 percent of the minimum requirement, Allianz said in a statement, and represents 4.2 percent of the group's current market capitalization.
"The year (2016) was filled with surprises, not all of them welcome, that challenged many assumptions, fueled geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility, and that make 2017 difficult to predict," Chief Executive Oliver Baete said in a statement.
"Nevertheless, we feel confident enough to raise our operating profit target range," he said, referring to a target of 10.8 billion euros, plus or minus 500 million, in 2017.
Operating profit in 2016 rose 0.9 percent to 10.8 billion euros, which compared with an average of analysts' forecasts of 10.87 billion.

2017년 2월 17일

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FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires on Netherlands far right wing party. Expect same for Marine Le Pen.

Quote: With his uncompromising language about immigration and Islam, Geert Wilders has been stirring up Dutch politics for several years now. But since the election campaign in the Netherlands formally began Wednesday, polls have shown that his popularity is on shaky ground. His far-right Freedom party (PVV) still holds an advantage over the ruling Conservative (VDD) party, but one that is narrowing.
Wendy Jansma, a 29 year-old healthcare student, was considering voting for Wilders. She likes that he has “the guts” to talk about problems, and is willing to put Dutch people ahead of newcomers. But the behaviour of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has caused her to reconsider. “I am afraid when I look at Trump – I don’t want to have someone like that in power here. That would be taking a big risk,” she told Vice News.
Quote: news.vice.com/story/dutch-politician-geert-wilders-kicks-off-election-campaign-with-anti-immigrant-message

2017년 2월 21일

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FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it

John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/21/border-tax-hits-political-reality-and-only-trump-can-save-it.html

2017년 2월 22일

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FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today: invst.ly/3bcph invst.ly/3bcpm

2017년 2월 22일

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FEB 22 2017: Only one side can be right.

1. Markets:
Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen
Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure: cnbc.com/2017/02/22/euro-plummets-to-6-week-lows-as-le-pens-presidential-bid-looms-socgen.html

or:

2. Facts:
Germany´s far right wing and antie EU and anti Islam Party AfD dropped today to 8% of likely voters fro 18% last year. This is a huge loss of 60% of all likely voters since August 2016.
spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/afd-faellt-in-forsa-umfrage-auf-acht-prozent-a-1135756.html

Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017.
n-tv.de/politik/Wilders-rauscht-ins-Umfragetief-article19714264.html

2017년 3월 23일

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March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Source:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2017

2017년 3월 24일

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MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st-closes-lower%2C-after-healthcare-vote-delay-468437

2017년 3월 24일

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MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3%3Fr%3DUS%26IR%3DT

2017년 3월 30일

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Comment: MAR 29 2017: After Hours DAX 12.240 - just 150 point missing for a new All Time High.

2017년 4월 2일

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APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

2017년 4월 4일

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APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Quote: ft.com/content/bba626fa-0994-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43

2017년 4월 5일

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APR 05 2017 Euro zone businesses started 2017 on a six-year high: PMI
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-businesses-started-2017-on-a-six-year-high:-pmi-471528

2017년 4월 5일

거래청산: 스탑 닿음

2017년 4월 5일

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Sellorder executed on trailing stop, set on Monday APR 03 2017. Net gain 532 Points with one single trade only.

2017년 4월 5일

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Sold is just this one positon. As said before the idea is to sell one by one into this rallye. All other position still running - with huge gains.

2017년 5월 2일

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German economy booms as protectionist threat goes pop
investing.com/news/economy-news/german-economy-booms-as-protectionist-threat-goes-pop-478522