Deutsche Bank AG (DB): Potential Sell-Off Ahead?

6월 11일

Analyzing the Deutsche Bank AG on the German Stock Exchance XETR, we observe a repeating pattern involving two trend channels. In both instances, the trend channels were respected and behaved as expected.

In the first case, the price exited the trend channel and then retested it almost perfectly. In the second instance, the price overshot the trend channel briefly with a wick above but quickly retraced back below it. This overshoot indicates significant weakness, suggesting a potential stronger sell-off in the near future.

Zooming into the volume since 2020, we notice that the current range has seen low volume, indicating minimal buying interest at these levels. The buying interest appears to be much lower.



Zooming into the Deutsche Bank AG 12h chart, we see that the level of the larger Wave (1) at €14.64 is being respected and held for now. However, we anticipate a sell-off down to the range between €13.50 and €12.50. Falling below this range is not expected, but if it occurs, the next likely support would be between €10.50 and €9.30.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, it would be unfavorable if Wave 4 were to fall into the territory of Wave 1. While brief wicks below are acceptable, a prolonged stay in this range would not be ideal and is not our primary expectation. We also observe that the RSI is showing signs of being overbought.

There is a bearish divergence forming, with a lower high on the RSI and a higher high on the price chart. This divergence suggests that the recent price movements might lead to further declines.

In summary, while the €14.64 level is currently holding, we expect a potential sell-off to the €13.50 to €12.50 range. A further decline into the €10.50 to €9.30 range could occur but is less likely. The bearish RSI divergence supports this outlook, indicating potential downward pressure in the near term.