Costco's Strong Earnings Amid Slowing Sales Growth: What’s Next?

9월 27일

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) delivered a mixed bag in its latest fiscal fourth-quarter report, with earnings beating estimates but revenue coming in slightly below expectations. The company’s net income jumped 7% year-over-year to $2.35 billion, or $5.29 per share, topping analysts’ estimates of $5.08 per share. However, revenue rose by just 1% to $79.7 billion, falling short of the $79.97 billion forecasted by analysts.

E-Commerce Growth Slows, But Still Impresses
While Costco’s e-commerce sales grew by 18.9% year-over-year, this was a slowdown compared to the 20% surge seen in the prior quarter. As online shopping habits continue to evolve, this deceleration in growth has raised eyebrows among investors, even though the numbers still reflect strong overall demand. CFO Gary Millerchip acknowledged the shift in consumer spending, noting that customers are being "very choiceful" in where they allocate their dollars, especially in the face of promotional deals in key categories like appliances and electronics.

Membership Fee Hike: A Watchpoint for Investors
Costco’s report was also significant because it came on the heels of the retailer’s first membership fee hike in six years, which took effect as the quarter ended. While the higher fees did not impact Q4 results, investors will be closely monitoring how these increased costs will affect future earnings. The membership model is a cornerstone of Costco’s business, and any shift in renewal rates could significantly affect long-term growth.

Mixed Sales Results: Same-Store Sales Hit by Gas Prices
Same-store sales, excluding gasoline, rose by 5.4%, which was short of expectations and a drop from the 6.6% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Lower gas prices and cautious spending on big-ticket items like furniture and electronics contributed to the slowdown, even as demand for essentials like groceries remained strong. This cautious consumer behavior could be an early signal of broader economic challenges.

Technical Outlook
On the technical front, COST is currently down 1.55% in premarket trading, within a falling trend channel. With an RSI of 54, the stock is holding just above a key support pivot, indicating some resilience. Historically, COST has shown a knack for rebounding after periods of consolidation, and the current setup suggests the potential for another upward move. The stock has been on a tear this year, gaining roughly 37% so far, and any break above the current trend channel could trigger further gains.

The Bigger Picture: Is COST Still a Strong Buy?
Despite the near-term revenue miss, Costco’s long-term growth story remains intact. Its ability to maintain strong earnings growth, coupled with its expansion in e-commerce and global markets, positions it well for future success. However, the impact of rising membership fees and evolving consumer spending patterns will be critical factors to watch in the coming quarters.

As investors digest these results, the key question remains: Can Costco maintain its growth trajectory in a more cautious consumer environment? With its strong fundamentals and track record, the stock may remain an attractive option for those looking for long-term value in a competitive retail space.