Chartvzn Analysis: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)

b]Key Stats

Market Cap: CAD 55.6B
P/E Ratio: 12.89 (Moderately undervalued compared to industry averages)
Dividend Yield: 5.91% (Solid for income investors)
Revenue Growth: 2.58% YoY (Recent FY revenue: CAD 21.31B)
Next Earnings Date: December 7, 2024​


Technical Reasons for Upside

Bullish Hammer Formation: Recent price action carved out a hammer candlestick on November 20, signaling strong buyer support at lower levels.

Ascending Channel Support: The stock is hugging the bottom of a long-term bullish channel, offering an attractive risk-reward entry.

Oversold RSI Recovery: Daily RSI bounced from oversold levels (38), aligning with potential upward momentum.


Fundamental Reasons for Upside

Strong Dividend Play: A consistent 5.91% yield positions CM as a defensive pick amid market volatility, attracting income investors.

Positive Analyst Sentiment: Recent upgrades, with price targets ranging from CAD 94 to CAD 97, signal optimism in CM’s performance.

Improved Loan Portfolio Risk: Management’s risk transfer initiatives are reducing exposure to corporate defaults​.


Potential Paths to Profit

Low Risk: Accumulate shares below CAD 93. Enjoy the dividends and hold until the target is hit.

Options Play: Buy Dec 20, 2024 CAD 94 calls (~CAD 2.10 premium). Attractive theta decay under low volatility.

Pair Trade: Hedge with short positions in a weaker Canadian bank like Laurentian (LB).


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