Fundamental factors suport oil, but this is temporarily

The increase in oil that we observed on Tuesday is largely due to news about production problems in Canada and Libya, as well as data on US oil reserves from the API. It's about stopping an oil refinary in Fort McMurray (Canada) due to an accident (a transformetor explosion). According to current information, it will take about a month to repair it. The losses from this stop will amount to 360 K b / d, which is a very serious amount even on a global scale. As for Libya, there is another redistribution of oil control in the country. However, this is not something really new. What is characteristic, the official Tripoli declares its plans over the next 5 years to increase oil production by 2 times, to 2.1 million barrels per day.

AND the latest news in favor of local oil growth was the data from the API, according to which crude oil reserves in the US fell by 9.23 million barrels (a record value since September 2016).

Despite the more than convincing growth of oil against the backdrop of such news, in our opinion, these events are of the nature of temporary force majeure, therefore we consider them as a momentary factor of influence.

But more interesting in terms of strategy news is the information that Saudi Arabia is going to set a record for oil production. Aramco expects to bring oil production up to 10.8 million barrels per day in July. Recall, in May, the volume of production was 10.03 million barrels per day. That is, we are talking about the appearance of an additional 800K b / d on the market. And this is very, very serious. The last time such volumes Saudi Arabia produced at the height of the race for market share in 2016.
That is, the results of the OPEC meeting are already making themselves known. And this is without the latest data from Russia, which was even more serious than Saudi Arabia.

Thus, the current price increase is just a gift to those who did not manage to sell oil at $ 70 per barrel (WTI brand). Our position is unchanged - to sell oil. Those who have done this before should be added, and those who did not, can open even with double volumes.