Short oil Above 38.2% Fib Line

Crude oil is trading it highs to low short fib at the 38.2% line. Oil has a history of trading this short fib line in this downtrend. The last time it traded this level, crude dropped from 81.72 level to 77.57, hitting the objective to nearly the penny. Now, we are trading the highs to low 38.2 level. And, once again, we are having issues getting past it. So, let's take a small risk here and see if we can get a trade out of it.

I am looking for a 15 minute candle with a wick or two above this 80.37 level. A rapid fall back beneath this level would be the right price action for a big break to the downside, targeting the objective at 75.87.

The chart shows the previous Fib draw (left) and subsequent decline to the target objective. On the right, the current fib draw from low to highs, including this 38.2% line. For this trade risk no more than 25 cents on your fill. Based on projected move, this is a 20:1 Reward:Risk level.