They cheap over 70% of the time. Libya has just announced to add 300k barrels per day of output. I'm hedging this position with a consumer discretionary company GCO short. If oil rises or stays flat on a YoY basis oil will be 40-60% higher. The consumer will thus be hammered and my short should pay off. If oil falls, the consumer looks weak regardless. Higher rates have tightened them enough to do serious damage.