CHF/JPY has historically exhibited periods of range trading, which is not surprising given the similar underlying fundamental characteristics. A break-out of the range has previously seen a run to new levels before a new range is established.
It’s possible that the recent run higher has paused, and it might be establishing a new range of 131.95 – 136.18, the low and high of the last month. These levels may provide support and resistance respectively.
Further support might lie at the 34-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 132.55 or a prior low of 130.77 and a pivot point of 129.03. The latter was the August 2015 peak.
On the topside, resistance could be at the previous peaks of 134.62, 135.05 and 135.43.
The short-term 10-day SMA has just crossed below the 21-day SMA, which may signal that near term bearish momentum could unfold.
The 34- and 55-day SMAs are below the price and have positive gradients, suggesting that underlying bullish momentum remains. This clash of momentum signals might be indicative of a range trading environment for now.
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