pantheo

Canadian dollar: Dive or gun the stops first?

CME:CD1!   None
1
It is undoubtedly on of the strongest trends around, so well defined that makes you think "it can't happening" for more than a year now.

Looks almost ready to break the bear flag and dive, giving the $USDCAD the edge it needs to break it's respective triangle upwards. Although very famous triangle the last few weeks, data from Etoro - www.forex-tribe.com/...-Traders-Insight.php -{ true or not, don't have the slightest idea} shows only a limited amount of bulls around 19% currently long. If retail traders are more often than not wrong in major turns as the adagio says, then is a good think for the $USDCAD longs.

On the other hand, downtrend is almost exhausted as CCI prints lower readings than the major 2009 swing low and short term momentum is positively diverging. Needs a relief rally or have first to gun the stops nested in 91.20 area?

Don't have a clue. My only observation is that Oil ($CL1!, light blue line imposed) had a higher high while canadian dollar didn't , stubbornly continuing it's flag consolidation.

Mr Poloz did his job perfectly yesterday talking down the canadian dollar. If the white haired, mesmerising talker granny - that lot of people confusing with their own, forgetting that she represents one of the nastiest organisations on the planet - do her own today might have a different result than the commonly expected.

USdollar's Sentiment and public opinion is close to low readings. but not at extreme pessimist levels yet.

Safest road is to follow the trend. Even if it doesn't work , still gives a better sleep

Best of trading

Panos
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