Shorting Strategy

Please let me know if you have a simply strategy to short.

All major downmoves (on S&P 500, crude oil, gold or cocoa) had this pattern in the past:

market trade below 18 moving averag
then rally to prior week 50% then major downmove.

But how to avoid entering a systematic trade when market is already at the bottom?

well i dont trade short if there is a blue pin bar on the prior two days as this usually signals a recovery.