Why I think Bitcoin has bottomed Part 1

2022년 6월 21일

Hi,

Quite a lot to talk about the recent events! and for those out there that are bearish, I am pretty bullish at this point and time, what we are seeing is clearly full capitulation on the market, which is painful but required as well to shake out the massive amount of longs we had on the market that kept on creeping up whilst we went down from 69k or our previous ATH
Whilst price did go down 50% people seem to keep on longing and it was not enough, then we went down to below 30k, but people still were longing and did not let go, it was only until 20k range that we saw a lot of people giving up.. but truly it is only now when we broke 20k that we saw the massive amount of long open interest break that shows us we bottomed.
Now that is just one way to look at things, here is another way.

Just take a look at Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2 (you can google the picture, or just see it on my facebook page)

I have overlayed it on and over the Bitcoin price chart and it matches perfectly to a tee! We can also see that we have had our Phase E now, which is why I think we have bottomed out. As the schematic went through all the phases.
Secondly lets talk about that bear flag, which I have noted in dashed green line, well the measured move from the pole down was 17.8k which we exactly hit pretty much, which also once again points out that the flag is played out.

Now, we can see we have this broadening wedge imo that is in play, and those typically end up breaking towards the top rather than the downside, I do believe we put in our ABCD and we will go towards the top end around 25.5k very soon.
Very likely some natural resistance there but once that breaks we have pretty much free air all the way towards our point B, which will determine how high we will go back in this market (which is around 44k).

On the full macro my thoughts still have not changed or invalidated, I still think we make a broadening ABCDE triangle, see older posts, but the point E is a lot deeper now than before which coincides with the quantitative tightening that will be ongoing throughout end of this year/next year.
But we need to play that out once we get more data and adjust accordingly.

I know a lot of you out there are super bearish right now, and everyone is calling for 12k or 10k or whatever targets, I remain pretty confident with my targets and I keep on DCA'ing in with my latest largest buy purchase in my life at 18k.
This is of course not financial advice, just giving my personal thoughts on the market. I think a lot of people will be left behind in the next few months whilst we get that big leg back up, how high? currently still same thoughts, I still believe we make a new ATH before end of the year, at 74k range.
Current expectation will be somewhere after summer, end of August.
If things don't go fast enough, we should still get a large and sufficient bounce towards 50k range imo, but that all remains speculation for now.

Have plenty of more reasons to tell why I think we bottomed, in the next few days/parts :)
Don't get left behind, these are opportunities of a lifetime.

-The Dang Oracle