Bitcoin Monthly: Full Chart Analysis

11월 1일

Good evening my fellow trader, I am hoping you are having a wonderful day. We have a tricky situation here with the monthly Bitcoin chart, I shall read it in full for you.

The tricky situation is that the chart gives certain messages, it can be translated in different ways but there is always my own bias that I developed through looking not only at Bitcoin but also the Altcoins market. When I am reading and translating the chart this can change the meaning of certain chart signals. The signals are always one and accurate, the data is indisputable but it can be interpreted in many ways.

In order to avoid clouding what the chart is saying with my own thinking, I will divide this analysis in two portions. The first one will be an unbiased look at the chart signals based on technical analysis and how it is used in the conventional way, and the second one will be my interpretation of the chart based on experience and taking into consideration marketwide action and sentiment and data that is not available on this chart.

Technical analysis can be used to make predictions, just as it can be used to time trades, and these two are quite different approaches. Trading would be very easy because it would be based on resistance and support levels, the predictions part can be complex because the signals are mixed. For example, a double-top or resistance being challenged? A rejection below the last ATH or Bitcoin moving towards a new ATH and higher prices? This is what we are about to get into and I hope you enjoy the content.


➖ Bitcoin Monthly Chart Signals (Technical Analysis)

This month BTCUSDT is closing green and it is the first time Bitcoin closes two consecutive months green since it peaked in March. Before this month, we saw an alternating pattern of one month red and another green.

This is one of the lowest volume month of the year and this month produced the lowest volume from many months in previous years. This month produced almost the lowest volume ever. Only a few months in several years have less volume than this one.

The current monthly session is producing a double-top pattern. The month closed below March's 2024 wick high and session close.

In March, the monthly RSI closed at 76.
In October, very close to the same price, the RSI closed at 66.

(There is an interesting signal with the weekly RSI; in March it closed at 88 when it peaked but currently the RSI reads 59.90; a very strong bearish divergence.)

The MACD is pretty standard for a rise with a curve starting to develop and a dropping histogram since March 2024.
(The weekly MACD is showing a strong bullish cross.)

October produced a neutral candlestick pattern.


➖ Bitcoin: Bullish Or Bearish? (Interpreting The Signals)

The double-top pattern is a reversal signal. Ultra-low volume is bearish. It can happen that trading volume is still low because the real action is yet to start. But so far it is a sign of weakness.

Bitcoin is moving up and growing but many Altcoins are not doing the same.

The bull flag as a continuation pattern is no longer present on the chart, so, what to expect next?

Bitcoin's chart is mixed as usual and it is extremely hard to predict the next move. This is normal and we shouldn't expect for it to be easy because many people are looking at Bitcoin and it becomes complex to know what happens next; but the market is one, we have the Altcoins and the smaller Altcoins can easily move ahead, and this is happening now.

When Bitcoin stops and consolidates, goes sideways and we enter a doubt zone, we can always look at the Altcoins to know how the next move will develop. In the last three months, when Bitcoin would stop and hit resistance, the Altcoins were growing massively, 200-300%. When the Altcoins are growing, this is a bullish sign for Bitcoin. But if Bitcoin stops growing and enter a doubt zone, will it break down or up? We look at the Altcoins and see them all crashing and we know that Bitcoin is set to move down because the market is one.

The same pattern that is happening now already happened in 2021. Most of the Altcoins market peaked in April/May 2021. Bitcoin went on to produce a higher high in November 2021. All the Altcoins produced a lower high and this signaled that Bitcoin was only producing this higher high as part of an irregular correction. And this irregular correction ended as a higher high rather than a lower high because of inflation. Since the money supply expanded considerably during Covid, the money gets devalued and when the expected lower high should happen it ends as a higher high, but if you adjust the chart for inflation or look at it through an oscillator such as the MACD or RSI you can see the truth.

Present day, Bitcoin is hitting a new All-Time High basically, and Ethereum and the rest of the giants are trading so low that it is hard to understand.

This is happening because only a portion of the players are participating in this wave. For the market to grow and produce a new bullish cycle with a major bull-run at the end, all the players need to be involved, this is not happening now, and this is reflected with most of the market being depressed and staying behind while Bitcoin grows.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is like to enter a correction before hitting a new major high. A new major high would be the next Fib. extension level around 102,000. For this level to hit, we are likely to experience a correction first and this correction can be something surprising for most participants.

Just as the market grows beyond expectations when bullish, it does the same when bearish. Just as it removes all barriers and shoots extremely high up, when correction times come, it will go deeper enough to liquidate 95% of all longs.

Thanks a lot for your support.

Namaste.