If you have been following me for a while, you'll know I've been saying we are trading in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle. I've also referred to this as Elliot Wave Theory Wave 1. According to my plan, this is the first impulse wave towards the upside. But the upwards wave are always followed by correction waves; a natural part of any cycle. I expected the second impulse wave (2-3) to happen very close to or just before the BTC halving, which is set to happen in April. This is based on a previous analysis that I did where we made a conclusion based on the price action of the previous BTC halvings before, during and after.
👉 Macro Analysis Bitcoin is due for that 30% correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave, which is the biggest ( wave 2). This will fall exactly on the white diagonal trendline, which is our support zone.
👉 Technical Indicator Analysis Our technical indicator is still bullish, but showing "Overbought". In a higher timeframe, this usually means it can carry n for some time - but a pullback is imminent before another impulse upwards.
NOTE that I am BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting that we're currently trading in impulse wave 0-1.
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BTC: Incredibly strong buying pressure on the lower timeframes. But now to see if we can close the WEEKLY above this previous topout wick, or if get rejected:
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BTC: Almost there... but we did not close the weekly above. Seems we may have to wait for another daily candle to close to see whether or not we can go beyond this resistance zone: