BTC High Probability Forecast Based on Real Math

10월 22일

Bitcoin has repeatedly corrected ~mid-20% during the last 12–24 months. Using this empirical drawdown profile, a base-case correction of ~25% from a recent $126,000 high implies a **probable correction low near $94,500–$95,000.

This is a high probability forecast based on real math and stats, not science
fiction. No expanding triangles, Elliott Wave counts, Wolfe and Dragon patterns.
Bitcoin does not trade by the textbook. This is real world TA by a pro trader.

Tactical view: Expect a final flush toward ~$95k, then a reversal/bounce if market structure and liquidity conditions confirm.

Confidence: VERY HIGH —pattern consistency is notable, but crypto remains headline- and liquidity-sensitive. Use disciplined risk controls. 🧠

2) Recent Corrections (Past 12–24 Months)
# High → Low % Drawdown
1 $72,000 → $54,000 25%
2 $108,000 → $76,000 28%
3 $70,000 → $50,000 28%
4 $74,000 → $56,000 24%

Empirical mean drawdown:

(25+28+28+24)÷4 = 26.25%.
We’ll use 25% as the base-case assumption (conservative vs. the 26.25% mean). ✅

Projection for the Current Correction

Reference high: $126,000
Base-case (25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.25) = $94,500
Empirical-mean (26.25%) low:
$126,000 × (1 − 0.2625) = $92,925

Projected buy-zone: $92.9k – $95k, centered near $95k. 🎯

10월 22일

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let me know your thoughts on the above in the comments section 🔥🏧🚀

10월 22일

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10월 22일

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Massive Bitcoin Whale Initiates Whopping $122,000,000 BTC Short
dailyhodl.com/2025/10/21/massive-bitcoin-whale-initiates-whopping-122000000-btc-short/

10월 22일

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No BTC won't reverse at 100k, because someone told you so on X or TikTok

10월 22일

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pro traders don't use MACD RSI and other useless garbage crossovers EW etc
forget about trading bitcoin by the book not going to work you will blow up your account

10월 22일

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my previous analysis below

10월 22일

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Bitcoin September 2025 Outlook: a/b/c price fractal structure

10월 23일

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US govt Shutdown Impact on GOLD/BTC/SPX/NDX Overview

10월 30일

액티브 트레이드

break below 100k incoming

11월 2일

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Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders

11월 3일

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it's not an alt coin season now.
it's not bitcoin season now.
it's bear season now.
figure it out already.

11월 4일

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Gold Bull Market Update and Outlook Q4 2025 / Q1 2026

11월 4일

거래청산: 타겟 닿음

where the moon boys at?

11월 4일

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BOOM. BTC BROKE BELOW 100 000 USD. TRADING NEAR 99 000 USD NOW.

11월 4일

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100 000 USD WAS NEVER A VALID S/R ZONE. STOP WATCHING TA ON TIKTOK AND TWITTER.

11월 9일

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Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders

11월 11일

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target revised to 90 000 USD

11월 16일

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Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders

11월 23일

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Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders

11월 25일

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Why Manual Forex Trading Is Officially Dead

11월 30일

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🏅 GOLD WEEKLY SUMMARY — SHORT THE RIPS

🪙 Trend: Uptrend intact long-term, but near-term tape turning distributive.
🏔️ Key Sell Zone: $4,220–$4,320 — prime area to short rips into supply.
🐻 Bear Liquidity: $4,350 (fresh liquidity) → expect rejection / reversal.
📉 Stretch Stop-Run: $4,380 — only hit on squeeze; short bias still valid below here.
📊 Downside Targets: $4,060 → $4,000 → $3,960.
🛡️ Major Support: $3,930–$3,940 bullish block (HTF buyers defend).
⛔ Bear Expansion: Break below $3,930 = opens $3,880–$3,850.
💱 Macro: Lower real yields + softer USD = supportive but not enough to chase highs.
🏦 Flows: Strong central-bank buying keeps floor firm but upside crowded.
🎯 Strategy: Fade all strength into $4,220–$4,350; take profits down into $4,060–$3,960.

11월 30일

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Gold next week Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders