Need to confirm whether to create a pull back pattern

업데이트됨

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

There may be different views on the definition of rise and fall depending on how you interpret the chart.

Some may believe that the current decline has begun, while others may think that it is a correction to a sharp rise.

No matter what you say, this is a problem that can be found out naturally if you wait a little longer.

(1W chart)

I think the 1W chart is the best way to find trends in the coin market.

Therefore, if you look at the 1W chart, you can see that it has only fallen slightly.

Even if the next week begins and the decline continues, if it does not fall below the opening price of the last rising candle, I don't think it can be said that the trend has turned to decline.

From the perspective of those who entered a SHORT position at the high point, it can be said that it is a downward trend since it is falling anyway, but when looking at the overall trend, I think it can only be seen as a correction that can occur in an upward trend.

The period of volatility began first on the futures charts and is expected to last until around December 10th.

Throughout this period of volatility, we need to see if there are any changes to the existing trend.

Therefore, if possible, it is recommended to avoid trading during periods of volatility when trading spot.

In particular, you must be more careful when it comes to stop loss.

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(4h chart)

I think that in order for the price to turn into at least a short-term downtrend, the price must be maintained by falling below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.

Until then, I think it's just an adjustment.

Therefore, the adjustment is
1st: Near 5EMA on 1D chart
2nd: Near M-Signal on 1D chart
It is expected that it will proceed depending on support around the first and second rounds above.

If BTC touches the 5EMA on the 1D chart, I think BTC's movement could accelerate again.

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(USDT.D 1D chart)

USDT dominance fell below 5.89.

Accordingly, we can see that the coin market has begun an uptrend.

(BTC.D 1D chart)

However, since BTC dominance is still above 50, it is ambiguous to say that it is an altcoin bull market.

If BTC starts to move quickly, there is a possibility that the prices of altcoins will fall sharply.

Therefore, if you purchase altcoins for day trading, I think it is important to sell them when you are making a profit.

If you plan to hold it for a longer period of time through a short-term transaction, it is recommended to sell the amount equal to the purchase principal (+ transaction fee included) and reserve the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.

When these methods are used for the first time, they often fail.

The reason is that after selling, you buy immediately when the price rises.

The above method should not be used in day trading.

Since day trading is about earning cash profits anyway, it is best to just sell 100% and earn cash profits.

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.

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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA

** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.

** This chart was created using my know-how.

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노트

Don't try to fit your current movements into a pattern.

Don't forget that you will only know when the pattern is complete.

Even if you can predict the future with a pattern, it can only be known once the pattern has been completed.

There are numerous pattern techniques in chart analysis techniques.

These pattern techniques can be used as analysis data when the pattern is completed, but I think predicting that the pattern will be completed when the pattern has not yet been completed is itself a problem.

Therefore, we can see that the pull back pattern was also a pull back section when it was completed.

However, I am only telling you this because you can calculate the turning point (5EMA on the 1D chart, M-Signal on the 1D chart) to complete the pull back pattern.

노트

#BTCUSDT.P 1h

5EMA on the 1D chart is rising around 42.7K.

Accordingly, volatility is expected to occur soon as it touches the 5EMA on the 1D chart.

We believe BTC's current volatility period will last until December 9th, so we need to be careful in our response.

노트

#BTCUSDT 1D

It is likely that the trend will be re-determined around the 43823.59 point.

Accordingly, the key is whether the price can rise above the second resistance range of 44200.0-47600.0.

It appears that the first test of this is taking place during the volatility period around December 9th.

The second test is likely to occur during the volatility period around December 18th.

노트

#USDT.D

As USDT dominance falls below 5.89-6.39, the coin market believes that a bull market has begun.

#BTC.D

However, I think the question remains whether this bull market will lead to an altcoin bull market.

The reason is that BTC dominance is still above 50.

This is because it is thought that altcoins can record a further decline when BTC shows a downward trend during sideways movements or when there is a rapid movement.

Accordingly, caution is still required when trading altcoins.

An altcoin bull market refers to a bull market in which you can ultimately make a profit no matter what coin (token) you purchase.

노트

Since BTC dominance is still above 50, altcoins are likely to see a large decline even with a slight decline in BTC.

Accordingly, in a rising market, this risk can be reduced by purchasing when the candle on the 1D chart is a falling candle.

However, it is best to check for support near the support and resistance points.

노트

#BTCUSDT 1D

This period of volatility runs until December 10th.

If support is confirmed around 43823.59, I think there is a high possibility that an altcoin bull market will begin.

To do this, we need to see if BTC dominance falls below 50.

An altcoin bull market refers to a bull market in which everyone can make a profit no matter which coin (token) they purchase.

Accordingly, now is the time to target altcoins rather than BTC or ETH.

When targeting an altcoin, it is a good idea to check the support and resistance points and see if you are supported.

Therefore, if the candle on the 1D chart is a downward candle and it shows support near support and resistance, that is the time to attack.

I think chart analysis is meaningless once an altcoin bull market begins.

We wish you success in your investment.

노트

#BTCUSDT.P 1h

The 5EMA and M-Signal indicators on the 1D chart are rising and rising above 40K.

Accordingly, volatility is expected to occur when the 5EMA and M-Signal indicators on the 1D chart are touched.

I think it will be important to see if the price can be maintained above 42041.1 during this period of volatility.

Meanwhile, when the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart rises above 42041.1, we must check whether it can rise to around 46429.3 while facing volatility again.

Once the moving averages begin to converge, they are likely to diverge with greater force, so rapid volatility is expected.

What we need to see is whether BTC dominance can fall below 50 or rise above 61.

This is because there is a high possibility that an altcoin bull market will begin.

Otherwise, BTC is expected to dominate.

노트

In an upward trend or bull market, when the candle on the 1D chart is a downward candle, you can check for support and resistance near the support and resistance and buy.

In a downtrend or bearish market, you can buy when the candle on the 1D chart is a rising candle and breaks upward through important support and resistance points or sections.

I think the above is the basic buying method when trading in the coin market.

Also, if possible, it is recommended to buy 1-2 hours before a new 1D candle is created.

I think the coin market is one where you have no choice but to worry a lot about when to sell.

When a downtrend or bear market begins, the beginning is usually indicated by a recognizable movement.

I think that's why there's such a big plunge.

Therefore, until such a large plunge occurs, you can confirm cash profits through split transactions or increase the proportion of your investment through additional purchases.

However, I think the timing is as follows.

The time to sell in installments is when there is a rapid rise.

Usually, a rapid rise occurs when it rises by more than 10%, but once an altcoin bull market begins, the extent of the rise cannot be predicted.

Therefore, at this time, you must make your psychological state stable by selling in installments in an appropriate proportion according to your psychology.

If you are excited, you may react erratically at important times.

Therefore, you need a trading strategy that draws support and resistance points in advance on the altcoin chart you own and responds near those support and resistance points.

The time to make additional purchases is when the 5EMA on the 1D chart or the MS-Signal (M-Signal) indicator on the 1D chart is touched and the price appears to be maintaining.

The 5EMA on the 1D chart can be said to be a sharp upward line, so it is recommended to buy with a lower investment proportion.

Buying when the MS-Signal (M-Signal) indicator on the 1D chart is touched and the price is maintained can be purchased larger than the weight of the 5EMA on the 1D chart.

However, it is recommended to sell the portion purchased in this way when the price rises, that is, when it rises to near the previous high point.

If you want to make a cash profit when selling, you can sell 100%, and if you want to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit, you can sell the amount equal to the purchase principal (+ transaction fee x 2).

When doing spot trading in the coin market, selling 100% means that you will not trade this coin (token) in the future.

Therefore, if you want to continue trading, you should not sell 100%.

This is because there is a high probability of a large plunge when the coin market switches from an upward trend or bullish market to a downward trend or bearish market.

Therefore, if you continue to trade while selling 100%, you can dedicate the proceeds to the last coin (token) purchased.

In accordance with the above, the split selling point is when the price rises above the 43993.4 point, that is, the M-Signal indicator point on the 1M chart.

If it shows support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, this can be seen as a move to begin a full-fledged rise.

Therefore, the current movement of BTC appears to be taking a breather to determine a new trend.

Therefore, now is the time to trade altcoins rather than BTC or ETH.

Meanwhile, you can slowly, little by little, increase the proportion of your investment in BTC or ETH.

This is because, in the end, the leader in the rise will inevitably be BTC or ETH.

노트

Compiling the opinions of multiple people and using them in transactions is a risky transaction.

You can compile the support and resistance points or sections mentioned by many people, draw them on a chart, check the overlapping areas, create a trading strategy for them, and proceed with trading.

Otherwise, if you just synthesize what many people say, you are likely to suffer losses.

The reason is that each person has a different investment period.

The most important thing in a trading strategy is the investment period.

If you combine what people with different investment periods say, the possibility of creating an ambiguous trading strategy increases because it is impossible to calculate the correct investment period.

Therefore, you should think in advance about your investment period, then listen to several people and create a trading strategy based on what the person closest to your investment period says.