Risk/Reward & probability calculation based on historical stats

2022년 5월 10일

There are two contracting triangles on the chart. Both broken downside. Now, lets see the historical results of trades based on contracting triangles on bearish side for BTC on daily chart

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wBPtnus7/

Based on this,
Probability of price reaching 25300 before hitting 42700 is 30-33%
Risk reward for the bearish side is 0.64

Probability of price reaching 18903 before 50736 is 58-60%
Risk reward for the bearish side is again 0.65

Hence, the inverse of it will be stats for long side.

Probability of price reaching 42700 before hitting 25300 is 67-70%
Risk reward for the bullish side is 1/0.64 = 1.56

Probability of price reaching 50736 before hitting 18903 is 58-60%
Risk reward for the bullish side is 1/0.65 = 1.53

Full chart below:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jpMfZg0A/

Which side you are going to chose for short term speculation :)