BTC Roadmap!!! 3 scenarios in my mind!

2022년 12월 21일

Hi all,

There is not much change with the BTC price since my last update in September.
It's been months and BTC doesn't really show an impulsive increase and neither goes down significantly.
They stole our time very badly and BTC is still consolidating around 17K.

Now, I will share 3 main scenarios in my mind.

Let's start with the best one (GREEN)!
As long as the BTC price doesn't cross down the invalidation line, I would be expecting the 5th Wave of the impulsive wave started in 2018 December to be completed. To be honest, I feel this less likely after the FTX dump because we should have not spent that much time around these prices. We should have seen these values as a wick and not as complete candle bodies. Anyway, this scenario is still one the desk. We may find the bottom of wave 4 and the last impulsive wave of 5 may start soon. If we see such an impulsive wave, I expect to see the BTC top by the end 2023 or early 2024.

Let's jump to my most likely scenario (YELLOW)!
If the BTC price breaks down the invalidation line, the optimistic scenario is that all the price action starting from 2017 December till now is actually a huge flat correction. So, 2018 December was actually (A), 2021 November was (B) and we will soon finalize the last wave of C. If this is the case, I would expect BTC to go down around 10-12K zone. Technically, it's possible to go down till 7K but I don't expect it that much so I didn't show it in the graph. When the bottom is found with (C), a new big impulsive wave will start. In this case, I expect to hit the new wave top around end 2024 or early 2025. This is the most likely scenario in my mind.

Let's discuss about the worst case scenario (RED)!
If the BTC price breaks down the invalidation line, there is a very pessimistic scenario. When we hit the price at 69K, actually a whole 11 years of impulsive wave was completed and since then we are in the big correction which would take up to 3-5 years. In this case, we may be nearby the end of (A) and then we may see BTC go up till 30-40 area to complete (B). Then another leg down till 4-6K can be expected to complete the (C). Then another cycle will begin and we'll see super high prices by 2028-2030 :)).. Hahahaha I hope we will still alive. I don't expect this scenario that much (even lower than the first case) because a final candle of this huge 11 years of impulsive wave should be considerably bigger than the previous ones but it's not (2017 and 2020 candles are bigger than 2021). However, it's always good to keep such a scenario in the mind.

Be Careful when BTC gets around 30-40K. Yellow and red scenarios coincides at 30-40K zone and 2 scenarios will still be valid. This will be the biggest challenge to make decisions!

These are just my opinions and not a financial advise.
Please do your own analysis and make comments if you have!

Cheers !!!