$BTC multi-timeframe analysis

3월 27일

BTC is currently at a critical juncture, with three distinct trends emerging on the same chart:

Weekly Bearish Downtrend (Green):

This 1W bearish channel remains intact. Despite bullish optimism, BTC has not broken out of this green channel, meaning we are technically still in a bearish trend.

Daily Recovery Bullish Uptrend (Red):

On the 1D timeframe, BTC has been following a recovery bullish channel. However, this channel is now colliding with the top of the bearish weekly channel, creating significant resistance.

Hourly Bearish Downtrend (Yellow):

A new bearish downtrend on the 1H timeframe has formed as a result of BTC failing to break through the top of the 1W green bearish falling wedge.

Potential Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario 1:

If BTC breaks through the $90k resistance level and exits the weekly bearish channel (green), it could signal a strong long position and confirm the end of the downtrend, marking a reversal.

Bearish Scenario 2:

If BTC continues to follow the yellow downtrend and breaks down through the red recovery channel, this would invalidate the recovery and indicate further downside potential.

Outlook and Timeframe:

In my bearish warning from February 2025, I projected the end of the bearish consolidation by May 2025. If the bearish Scenario 2 plays out, it will confirm that this early warning was once again accurate.

However, if BTC manages to pump above $90k and sustain this level for at least a week, it would signal an early consolidation (one month ahead of schedule) and suggest that we are out of trouble.

Conclusion:

Watch for a confirmed breakout or breakdown.

Patience is key; wait for confirmation before making significant moves.

As always, DYOR (Do Your Own Research).

3월 28일

액티브 트레이드

Bearish Scenario 2 is currently playing out. BTC has broken through all supports like butter, largely due to the SPX500 experiencing a bearish dump. The weekly candle for the TradFi market confirms that we are in a recession, which heavily impacts institutions.

With tariffs looming in just a few days, the SPX500 could see further downside.

As for BTC, the recent bounce looks unconvincing — it may be temporary. On the macro level, we remain in a bearish trend on both the 1W and now the 1D timeframe. This no longer resembles a bull market.

Market makers have printed 1 billion USDT, so we could see a BTC pump over the weekend. However, next week isn't looking promising.